31 December 2012

The Roman God of the new year, Janus, had two faces looking opposite ways he had to look back to the past and on in to the future. Any new years message surely has to do the same so in looking forward to hopes and fears for 2013, we really have to start with 2012.

What will history remember? The Olympics, perhaps; the Greek debt crisis, maybe, although 2012 may not be the label that sits against it; the death of Lonesome George, the worlds last Pinta Island tortoise.

But what history may record for 2012 is that it was the year in which the economic ideas that have been regarded as gospel, scarcely challengeable in mainstream discussion and embedded at the heart of government, academia and business for decades, were declared failed, their capital zero. It was certainly the year in which the voices against this clearly failed model, from Occupy and UKUncut to the Transition Town movement, became even stronger and more certain.

As the British economy bumped along on a wobbly foundation of low-pay, insecure work; as the instability of the banks continued to pose a huge, unbridled threat; as the public came to recognise that multinational companies were scooping up the meagre spoils of the economy and shipping them off into tax havens; as G4S clearly demonstrated the failure of the outsourcing model built on the basis that the state carries the risks and the contractors could fail with impunity; it became clear that we need a radical change in direction.

On the global scale, as the Arctic sea ice shrank to astonishing lows, as the bounty of nature continued to shrink visibly before our eyes and food prices soared in response, as industrial farming methods continued to deplete our soils and pollute our oceans, it became even clearer that rapid change had to be made to our ways of life.

Instead of believing that we could run Britain on the basis of casino finance and outsourced services, shipping or flying in everyday essentials, leaving millions uncertain where next weeks rent or next months mortgage payment was coming from, it became clear that we must rebuild a proper, balanced low-carbon economy.

Its become clear that we need to bring food production back to Britain to restore the ring of market gardens that until recent surrounded our towns and cities, encourage allotments and city vegetable patches and fruit trees, to ensure that our green belt is protected, not buried under car-dependent sprawling suburbs. This was the year in which local food growing clearly became an essential to help feed the poorest in Britain.

Its become clear that we need resource-efficient local manufacturing, making the essentials of food, clothing, shelter that we need close to where theyre needed. Small positive steps are being made. Over the year I saw small enterprises starting to build this new model of business, from Who Made Your Pants in Southampton, to Furniture Divas in Oxford. But the barriers are many, and need to be slashed down.

And its clear that we need to reshape our energy use and energy production. First, we clearly need to get truly serious about energy conservation (including providing warm comfortable homes for everyone, built to the standards much of the rest of Europe takes for granted). Second, we need to move towards a decentralised, community-owned, flexible and resilient energy production system on- and off-shore wind, solar, small hydro, anaerobic digestion, waste biofuel, tidal. Third, we need to provide a decent, affordable public transport system and look at ways we can reshape our economy to eliminate long, miserable, pointless commutes.

All of these changes need to be built on a very different business model not giant multinational companies emptying out our high streets, importing low-quality, non-durable goods made in dreadful sweatshops, wasting vast amounts of our limited resources. Instead we need strong localised economies, built around small businesses and cooperatives, with decently paid staff offered jobs on which they can build a life.

If I had a magic wand, I would wave it and say, lets deliver that by the end of 2013. Of course I dont, and the changes will take more than a year, more than a decade. But my wish for 2013 is that we can identify it as the year in which Britain made serious strides towards a new economic model, a new direction.

Lets start with a crackdown on multinational companies make them abandon the use of tax havens and pay fair taxes (as their small business competitors must) and ensure that they pay all of their staff a living wage and offer stable conditions ending zero-hours contracts and anti-social, exploitative shift patterns. And go on with a serious legislative effort to end the risks of the banks again costing us hundreds of billions separate the high street banks from their gambling investment cousins, install a financial transactions tax, work to promote local banks and credit unions, and insure an effective green investment bank can provide the funds we need for essential work.

Lets move on to an Energy Bill that puts conservation at the heart of energy policy, that encourages small-scale renewables under community ownership. Add in the renationalisation of the railways as a start towards a sensible, integrated transport strategy, while abandoning the costly, inefficient HS2 plan.

Then lets act on the NHS protect our cost-effective, efficient, fair system keep it publicly owned and publicly run where it is now, and bring back in house as soon as possible the outsourcing to inappropriate profit-driven multinationals. After that, start spreading out to public services. Having made the minimum wage a living wage, and ensure decent conditions for workers, any efficiency, cost-effective claims for outsourcing across the public sector will disappear. As contracts expire, workers can be brought back in house democratic accountability restored and money put into essential services now cut back.

Then we can deal with poverty starting with pensioners. People whove contributed all of their lives shouldnt be living in poverty. Lets bring in a basic £170/week pension that would immediately lift all pensioners out of poverty. And a minimum wage being a living wage would help many workers, while the abolition of the dreadful Atos fitness to work scheme GPs understand the health of their patients and their needs best would take great stress off the ill and the disabled.

Then housing theres 300,000 empty private sector homes to be brought back into use, and 37,000 council homes; wed need a decent regional development policy to help with that. Much simpler lets give the growing army of private tenants greater security of tenure, enforce decent housing standards on their landlords, and encourage a new generation of housing co-ops in which people can work through their own housing needs.

Then some quick and sensible measures abolish Trident nuclear weapons, immediately bring home British troops from Afghanistan make us leaders in peace, and save some significant cash along the way.

Theres much more Id like to add in the abolition of university tuition fees, the restoration of an EMA-type system, but thats enough to be going along with for one year.

Of course, theres no sign of this Coalition government heading in any of these directions, of understanding that the convictions to which they continue to cling are now mere intellectual driftwood, heading fast towards a smashing reef.

But Janus was the god of beginnings and transitions, and we can turn to that image as January begins and hope for change, plan for change, campaign for change. Thats what increasing numbers of British people have been doing over 2012, and more will join them in 2013. I look forward to working with the many, the 99%, who are increasingly prepared to take on the 1% and their representatives.

In recent surveys over 80% of people support 20 mph limits without humps for residential roads, including 72% of motorists. 30 mph is just too high and dangerous in the streets where vulnerable road users are at greatest risk. We have undertaken surveys in Bettws that bears out these figures (82% support) and have 123 names on a petition (and unfortunately lost a sheet with at least another 20 names).

The 20s Plenty for Us Campaign is for residential streets with most A, B and arterial roads remaining at current limits. As almost every home, office or school is within 1/3 mile of an arterial road then the maximum change in journey time is under 40 seconds.

Many authorities are using Department of Transport guidance which encourages lower speeds to be set without physical calming. With education, consultation, social pressure and light touch enforcement, authorities such as Portsmouth have implemented a council wide default 20 mph limit for residential roads without any physical calming at all. Oxford and Bristol have followed suit. Over 8 million people live in authorities committed to Total 20 mph limits for residential roads. 20’s Plenty is a universal aspiration for communities, constituents and politicians not a party political one.

20s Plenty saves lives. Portsmouth had a 22% reduction in total casualties at year twos evaluation. A recent PACTS (Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety) report found that child casualties fell by 67% where 20 mph schemes were introduced. 20 mph limits are recommended by NICE (National Institute for Clinical Excellence) and the Association for Directors of Public Health.

I do hope that Bettws people can rely upon their elected representative to support and promote this excellent policy. It has all the following benefits:

• Save lives and injury
• Encourages walking and cycling leading to healthier children and adults.
• Lower congestion and pollution
• Less noise
• Create a better environment on residential roads
• Reduces health inequality between rich and poor in their life expectancy.

Most people involved in transport development recognise that, at some time, 20 mph will become the default speed limit for all residential roads in the UK. Bridgend can “hang on” till such a time and in the intervening period vulnerable road users in Bridgend and Bettws will die or be injured as a result of such a delay. The sooner we adopt the 20’s Plenty initiative then the greater the saving in lives and injury and the earlier the benefits in quality of life on our streets. Bettws can be the proving ground for the whole of Bridgend County.

Bettws children and adults want and need 20 mph as a default speed limit in the roads where they live. 20’s Plenty For Us will be continuing to campaign for the early adoption of this road danger reduction and life saving policy.

I trust that our communities can count on your support for residential 20 mph limits and that Bridgend will be a “can do” authority in taking this sensible step improve our quality of life in Bettws at the very least. The fact that you are a member of the Community Safety & Governance Overview and Scrutiny Committee makes you especially appropriate to be pushing this initiative forward.

Please let me know your thoughts. I can assist in explaining the initiative or its benefits then I would be very pleased to help. Please see www.20splentyforuk.org.uk for briefing sheets and more information on implementation, and our local campaign page: www.20splentyforbettws.moonfruit.com/#

We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Andy Chyba, Gareth Harris & Delyth Miller

20’s Plenty for Bettws Co-ordinators

India is stalling the toughest child labour law in its history… because politicians say it’s not a ‘priority’! But the majority of MPs support it and all they need is a massive public push to bring it to a vote. Let´s raise our voices for India´s children. Sign now:

The Indian Parliament is closing without passing the toughest child labour law in its history. Worse, the bill is supported by the majority of MPs, but it was ignored for weeks, because they felt it was not a ‘priority’!

India is the world’s child labour capital

The system works on five bands, with Band 1 being the best scoring schools and five at the other end of the scale.
The total score each school gets is partly based upon marks for pupils’ GCSE results and their attendance levels.

The number eligible for free school meals is also taken into account, to allow for the challenges of running a school in a deprived area.

Most of the categories also take into account a school’s progress over time, rewarding schools that are making improvements in performance.

Schools in the top bands will be expected to share their success and help develop better approaches in other schools (if they can untangle just how on earth they achieved it).

Local authorities will also be expected to use the system to target improvement resources on the schools that need it most. (Good luck with that!)

School Scores/Bands: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-20772793

By County: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-20767410

It is an absolute nonsense to try to amalgamate such a collection of arbitrary and misleading figures into any sort of meaningful score. I teach Essential Skills courses in Application of Number and if a learner presented such a flawed exercise as an assessment piece, there would be no option but to refer it back for a complete re-think!

The Conservatives called the bands “vague and confusing”, Plaid Cymru said they were “not credible” and the Welsh Liberal Democrats called them “crude”.

Labour’s Education Minister, Leighton Andrews, says the results will challenge those “not delivering for our young people”. How on earth he thinks it will achieve anything so lofty is beyond me. It will induce complacency in those that find themselves in the Top Band without a clue how they got there, and thoroughly demoralise those in the lower bands, doing a good job but being publicly humiliated. Neither is a good outcome.

As if to illustrate this point, the school which came top in this new system last year has fallen into one of the lowest groups. When it was introduced last year, Ysgol Tryfan in Bangor, Gwynedd, had the best relative score in Band 1, but has now dropped to Band 4. Ysgol Tryfan’s head raised questions over a system allowing such a big change. “Last year’s results were exceptionally good and meant the school was at the top of the banding scores,” he said. “This year’s drop is a disappointment, but one questions a system which allows such a big change, especially perhaps the progress measure. So if a school has had an exceptionally good year in 2011, they’re punished for it in 2012, even though the school is close to the highest quartile according to [school inspection body] Estyn’s most important measure.”

I would also have to question the credibility of a system that tends to highly score schools that patently peddle mis-education (I.e. faith schools; notably Catholics ones).

As a parent and former teacher with many close friends still in secondary schools, I know a dozen or more of these schools pretty well. I know these scores and tables are utterly meaningless and of no practical value at all. It is another truly embarrassing shambles that can only undo all the relief and goodwill created in Welsh schools when the Welsh Assembly kicked the crude exam league tables into touch in 2001. But at least those tables had an intelligible rationale.

The Labour administration should apologise for this crass and damaging exercise immediately and undertake a damage limitation exercise, as absolutely nothing positive can come from this at all.

Andy Chyba

“Submission to the Petitions Committee of the National Assembly for Wales in response to the Welsh Governments response to the Fracking Petition”

It underlines the points both Gareth Clubb (FOTEC) and I made at the Llandow Public Inquiry, as well as before and since.

It also serves to underline the complete absence of any meaningful response to the issue from Welsh Labour, and Carwyn Jones in particular.

Full document: http://www.senedd.assemblywales.org/documents/s11946/23.11.12%20Correspondence%20-%20Additional%20information%20from%20Petitioner%20to%20Chair.pdf

Summary

1. Friends of the Earth Cymru considers the Welsh Governments response to be deficient and urges the Committee to call for further evidence on this matter.

2. Current planning policy encompasses fracking within a generic minerals planning policy which has been based on the experience of processes for conventional gas extraction. It consequently fails to acknowledge the need for a more cautionary approach to the issues raised by the new processes involved in fracking. The major issues associated with fracking are the current scientific uncertainty as to its impacts; known impacts in relation to climate change; and potential impacts on groundwater. Current policy makes no provision for addressing or considering those issues.

3. Welsh planning policy demands that sound science be used responsibly, which in this context entails a precautionary approach. Policy also demands that fracking be specifically acknowledged as a source of greenhouse gas production (and is a process which therefore runs counter to policy seeking to mitigate climate change). A new policy, or an addendum to Planning Policy Wales (PPW), is the appropriate means of dealing with the specific issues arising from fracking.

4. In view of the urgent need to mitigate climate change, Friends of the Earth Cymru has proposed an additional planning policy that provides for a sound precautionary approach to decision-making:

Planning permission for fracking or shale gas operations (including test drilling and extraction) will not be granted unless

A)

the planning authority is satisfied that all reasonable scientific doubt that there is any risk of adverse impacts including groundwater contamination has been eliminated B)

the proposal will not compromise the planning authoritys duties in relation to climate change mitigation and adaptation; and C)

the proposal is environmentally acceptable, or it can be made so by planning conditions or obligations. 5. In the short term we recommend the Welsh Government adopt a moratorium on fracking until sufficient information is available to determine with a high degree of certainty the likely impacts of fracking on the environment.

6. In addition, the Environmental Impact Assessment Regulations (England and Wales) 1999 should be amended to include the requirement for a full EIA to be conducted for each fracking application. Fracking operations exempt themselves by ensuring they have a surface operation smaller than the 1 ha limit (ordinarily they are 0.99 ha) that would make them subject to these Regulations.

This is possibly the most important thing I have asked you all to do via this blog – follow this link and ensure our MPs are aware of your opposition to this appalling attempt to circumvent local democracy in the planning process. This has implications for every one of us, and future generations, if we let them get away with it.

http://www.foe.co.uk/campaigns/fair_future/press_for_change/bill_silence_local_voices_38544.html#.UM5dsJdvHfo.facebook

The new Growth and Infrastructure Bill will allow developers to bypass local authorities in some cases.

Bypassing local councils

Local authorities decide local planning decisions.

But in some “designated” local authorities the Secretary of State has suggested developers have the option to bypass them.

This will undermine local accountability and centralise these planning decisions.

Fast-tracking decisions

The Bill also creates an opportunity for developers to “fast-track” major projects instead of going to the local authority.

This could include developments for warehouses, leisure parks and large onshore gas extraction- i.e. FRACKING!

Nafeez takes a look at the unfolding story of doubts about the reliability and durability of US shale gas reserves which have been “inflated” under new Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules introduced in 2009. The new rules allow gas companies to claim reserve sizes without any independent third party audit. This is very much the case here in the UK right now. The overestimation of reserve sizes is being used to obscure the dodgey economics of fracking.

The first problem is production rates, which start high, but fall fast. Nafeez cites eminent authorities who have noted that production at wells drops off by as much as 60 to 90 percent within the first year. It is, however, something that any undergraduate geologist would readily understand and expect. This makes long-term profitability difficult, even in the UK context in which the gas markets will not allow any significant drop in gas prices even with greater supply. (I will explain this later). The industry has run into a crisis because it borrowed to finance the set up and production costs on the basis of its fanciful estimates of what it could extract from reserves of essentially uncertain size and accessibility. Prices are therefore rising fast again to save the companies bacon!

Nafeez neatly sums up the lesson we need to learn fast:
“Rather than ushering in a new wave of lasting prosperity, the eventual consequence of the gas glut could well be an unsustainable shale bubble, fuelling a temporary economic recovery that masks deeper structural instabilities. When the bubble bursts under the weight of its own debt obligations, it could generate a supply collapse and price spike with serious economic consequences.”

Returning to the differences between the US and UK gas markets.

Because of the way the wholesale gas market works in the UK, shale gas production (even at the most optimistic estimates) will have little impact on the price consumers pay.
See: http://www.publications.parliament.UK/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmberr/293/29305.htm

Key points:

• Natural gas is bought and sold in the UK by a number of means, e.g. On the spot market, through forward and futures trading, and under off-market contracts
• The daily spot price of gas serves to balance real-time supply and demand
• At their present level, wholesale gas prices are already significantly higher than supply costs
• Gas trading in the UK takes place via the National Balancing Point (NBP), which provides a virtual trading location for buying and selling into and out of the UK transmission system – essentially off-market contracts whereby normal market mechanisms do not operate
• Since the opening of pipelines connecting the UK to the European gas market, Continental gas prices have had a much greater influence on UK prices. The impact of increased supply in the UK would be spread across Europe
• One of the key characteristics of the European gas market is the indexing of long-term gas contracts to the price of oil, usually with a lag of 3 to 9 months. This exists largely for historical reasons, but persists because the gas market in Europe is not sufficiently liquid to allow producers to use it to index long-term contracts.

The upshot of all this is that there these mechanisms are skewed to ensure that UK consumers will see negligible benefits from shale gas, but the producers will have potentially huge profits. The opposite has been the case in the USA. The Shale Gas boom has seen their wholesale gas price plummet, but this has hit profitability of the producers causing many out of production after just 2 or 3 years.

In conclusion – the economics are dodgey ofr the producers; the benefits to the consumer will be negligible; and we all know the environmental consequences will be dire. I strongly suspect that once we get past the speculative phase that tin-pot companies like Coastal Oil & Gas/UK Methane are ankle deep in at the moment, the serious players will realise that the whole escapade simply does not add up – especially on crowded little islands with passionate activists on their case every step of the way. They are not usually that stupid – unlike someone I could name:

A few other dimensions/perspectives can be found in this excellent piece from Damian Carrington:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2012/sep/28/shale-gas-fracking-uk-carbon-energy

DearLocal Party Contact,

Spring Conference will take place in Nottingham from 22-25 February 2013 at the

East Midlands Conference Centre & Hotel, University Park, The University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RJ

It will be a particularly exciting conference as it coincides with the 40th Birthday of the Green Party, and there will be various things arranged to mark the occasion, including a panel discussion with the founders, a celebration dinner, and an exhibition.

I would be grateful for your help in distributing information about conference dates and booking to your members via newsletters, email, etc. There is lots of information and online booking on the conference website: www.greenparty.org.uk/conference. I have attached a booking form (early bird booking deadline 8 February).

We are also concerned to reach those members who do not have access to the internet, so perhaps you could put this information on the agenda of your next general meeting and take some print outs of the booking form.

I will send you more detailed information in the New Year. Thanks for your help and look forward to seeing lots of you in Nottingham.

Louisa Greenbaum
Conferences Co-ordinator
The Green Party

ATTACHMENT: