The only major regular poll of Welsh voters is the ‘Welsh Political Barometer’ that samples over 1000 Welsh adults every quarter.
Its most recent poll results are just out, from polling done 12th -14th May.
Note though that this graph shows figures for those that declared a definite intention to vote. If you look at the full figures for everyone polled, the Tory/Plaid positions are reversed.
Add to this the fact that if Labour polls more than double the votes of whoever comes 4th, they nick a second seat from them. The above graph shows Tories on 16% and Labour on 32% !!!
So in essence all that seems certain is that Labour and UKIP (ffs!!) have one seat each in the bag, and it is then a case of perm any two from three for the other two seats between Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Tories. i.e. it could be Labour/PC, or Labour/Tory, or PC/Tory.
The Greens have made some gains, rising from 3% in February to 6% currently (just 1% behind the LibDems) The gains appear to be mostly from Labour, which is good news, but …..
Given the overall picture, I have no choice but to re-iterate my plea for Green Party supporters to wake up and smell the coffee. We simply have to rally behind Plaid Cymru and ensure that Jill Evans is re-elected, especially if it heightens the probability of the Tory losing her seat instead.
And this is just one key issue. Jill is a very experienced, highly respected and valued member of the Greens/EFA bloc in the EU. It would be a tragedy of epic proportions for Wales, and beyond, if Jill is not returned to carry on the good fight. Gaining a couple of MEPs in England will be great, but it will be scant consolation for us living in Wales if we lose the only true ecosocialist voice we have.
Do not listen to Pippa Bartolotti’s delusional pretence that she is ‘in with a shout’ – I would not have stepped aside if that were ever a realistic proposition.
The future of the Wales Green Party has to be in working alongside, and not against, Plaid Cymru. There is a lot of support for this vision from ecosocialists across Wales and beyond.
It starts with us doing the right thing tomorrow. Vote Plaid Cymru and ensure Jill Evans is returned as OUR MEP !!