Cardiff Central as a no 1 target seat for Greens nationally? If only …..

The tragedy here is that not so long ago Cardiff Green Party was thriving and was in a good position to capitalise on these favourable demographics.

Given the successes we have seen in Brighton & Hove and Bristol, and also given Plaid Cymru’s weakness here, we have clearly seriously missed a trick here. If we cannot improve on the dismal 1.6% we got here 5 years ago we are clearly doing something very wrong indeed.

Andy C

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/green-party-will-have-a-significant
-if-not-decisive-impact-on-the-2015-election/ by Ian Warren

“Rather it would be more appropriate to consider which demographic groups
voted for the Greens in the May 2014 local elections and to then identify
seats where such demographic groups account for a higher proportion of such
groups.

My analysis has shown that the following demographic groups voted for the
Greens in 2014:

* Well educated singles living in purpose built flats
* City dwellers owning houses in older neighbourhoods
* Singles and sharers occupying converted Victorian houses

* Young professional families settling in better quality older terraces
* Diverse communities of well-educated singles living in smart, small flats
* Owners in smart purpose built flats in prestige locations, many newly built
* Students and other transient singles in multi-let houses
* Young renters in flats with a cosmopolitan mix

However the Greens are in a fight with the other parties for these voters
come the general election. The key for the party is to identify those seats
where these groups account for very large proportions of total households. A
list of the top ten seats with such demographics is:

* Cardiff Central (41.1% of households) – 13% LibDem majority
* Sheffield Central (39.7% of households) – Lab majority of 0.4% over Lib Dems
* Bristol West (37.6% of households) – 21% Lib Dem majority over Lab
* Brighton Pavilion (36.7% of households) – Green-held

* Manchester Withington (33.9% of households) – Lib Dem majority of 4.1% over Lab
* Wimbledon (33.6% of households) – 24% Con majority over Lib Dems
* Newcastle-upon-Tyne East (30.6% of households) – 12% Lab majority over LibDems
* Tooting (30.6% of households) – 5% Lab majority over Con
* York Central (29.5% of households) – 14% Lab majority over LD/Con
* Hove (28.7% of households) – 3.7% Con majority over Lab

In many of these seats the Green Party can reasonably expect to increase its
vote share
, with the possible exception of Brighton Pavilion where one can
plausibly make the case that every percentage point of Green support was
maximised to the full in 2010. The assumption at this stage must be that the
Lib Dems will lose many voters from 2010, and a good proportion of them have
shown in the local and European elections that they are not averse to voting
for the Greens.”

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