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Venezuela: ‘Sovereignty, the law and the UK government response are all being confused’

Below is an article published today in Labour List by Luke Akehurst and Graham Jones. It deals with questions I had about the U.S. incursion in Venezuela. I think it is a perceptive and valid perspective.

The problem, of course, is that Trump is involved who has no qualms about revealing his underlying motives. Having removed an illegitimate President, the U.S. now needs to quickly facilitate free and fair elections and support the resultant regime. It won’t. Trump has already openly declared that he envisions the U.S. ‘running’ Venezuela for the foreseeable future, while they facilitate the plunder of Venezuelan oil reserves.

The other problem is his declared intentions towards other territories in the Western Hemisphere: Columbia, Panama, Cuba, Canada and, probably imminently, Greenland.

Thus, as much as I welcome and agree with Luke and Graham’s analysis below, it offers no relief to the discomforting and disturbing feelings that arseholes like Trump and Putin are leading us into the most volatile and dangerous era of my lifetime.

Here is the article:

There is much commentary on the legality of the US action in Venezuela which confuses many issues.

 The rules are clear. You cannot invade another country. You can be invited in. The UK is in Ukraine legally not because of the UN, but because the Ukrainian sovereign government has invited us in. Putin may say it’s illegal, but it isn’t.

Only a sovereign nation can determine an intervention as to whether it is by friend or foe. In this case, the government of Venezuela.

This is the point where it all gets confused and where it pivots to the question of who is the sovereign body for Venezuela under the legal principle of ‘One Voice?’. Who runs Venezuela?

Too many don’t realise or don’t want to realise what this legal framework means.

Venezuela is an odd case. 65 countries recognise the opposition as the winners of the 2024 election and legitimate (legal) sovereign body.

This UK government, like previous governments, has repeatedly stated that Maduro is not the President and refuse to refer to him as such, instead referring to him as illegitimate.

Broadly speaking, those with the opposite view, countries who recognise Maduro, are led by those with democratic deficits: Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, Pyongyang.

And you know where this is going. The Venezuelan opposition (and election winners) call it a liberation and the Maduro regime (losers) an invasion.

Here in the UK, we are bound by law and we recognise the sovereign government as being the opposition. We have a robust legal framework here. There is opportunity to challenge the government and challenge this assertion in parliament and in the courts. But this recognition has been the policy of the last five prime ministers and crucially has already, for rare reasons, been tested in UK courts.

This is because the Bank of England holds vast quantities of Venezuelan gold bars in its vaults and both sides contested their sovereignty.

Maduro wanted it returned, the opposition wanted it to remain stored in the vaults. The court had to decide the principle of who represents Venezuela and held up the UK Government’s position that the Venezuelan opposition won the election and the gold must therefore stay in the UK.

The legal principle established here was who is the sovereign body in Venezuela to which the courts decided it was the opposition and not the Maduro government. In short, the UK government’s clear position as determined by the courts is that it can only take instruction from the Venezuelan opposition. The UK has therefore abided by the law and the gold bars remain in the BoE. This principle is at the crux of legality. 

The UK government has and continues to uphold this legal judgement. The alternative would be to recognise the Maduro regime as legitimate.

It’s a factor in the US too where Maduro’s defence rests on whether he has sovereign immunity as head of state, or, as indited, an alleged drug trafficker involved in corruption facing the same laws as everyone else.

And the Venezuelan opposition has been quite clear on the US. They do not see the US action as an illegal incursion into their sovereignty. Not before, not during and not now. They have colluded with US authorities and described the action as “liberation”.

The pragmatic reality of this is straightforward.

The democratic representatives of the Venezuelan people decide, they are sovereign on this issue, not UK politicians. And that should be the election winners for that is the fundamental principle we hold.

Furthermore, should Maria Marchado win the next election, she’s more than likely to be on the White House lawn thanking the US leadership before going to the UN to celebrate liberation.

The Venezuelans are unlikely to pursue Maduro’s claims of invasion, or an illegal incursion on sovereign Venuzeula.

How can Trump be held to account?

Trump and his administration clearly think they are above and beyond both international law and the U.S. domestic law. Having got away with so much for so long, they don’t even feel the need for pretence about this anymore.

Let me present the basis for me stating this, starting with his current exploits in Venezuela.

US Incursion in Venezuela Legality

The operation in which U.S. forces entered Venezuelan territory and captured President Nicolás Maduro raises serious legal concerns under both international and U.S. domestic law.

International law

  • The UN Charter prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another state, except in self‑defence against an armed attack or when authorised by the UN Security Council.
  • The U.S. operation was conducted without a Security Council resolution and without the consent of the Venezuelan government.
  • Experts argue that the U.S. could not plausibly claim self‑defence, as there was no imminent armed attack by Venezuela against the United States.  

Taken together, these points indicate that the incursion and kidnapping likely violate the prohibition on the use of force in the UN Charter.

U.S. domestic law

  • The Constitution grants Congress the power to declare war and to authorize the use of military force. Historically, major overseas operations have required a formal declaration or a specific statutory authorization (e.g., the Authorization for Use of Military Force).
  • In this case, the administration did not seek prior congressional approval for the operation, which legal scholars say breaches the War Powers Resolution and established precedent reuters.com.

Conclusion: Both the lack of UN Security Council authorisation and the absence of congressional approval suggest that the U.S. incursion into Venezuela and the kidnapping of its leader are illegal under prevailing international and U.S. legal frameworks. While the U.S. government may argue that Maduro was an illegitimate leader and a “narco‑terrorist,” such political rationales do not override the legal requirements for the use of force.

Previous offences

Trump’s conduct as a public figure has been the subject of extensive investigation, media scrutiny, and legal proceedings.

Credibly reported crimes and criminal accusations against former President Donald Trump (as of early 2026)

Case / InvestigationMain criminal allegation(s)Status (early 2026)
Manhattan “hush‑money” case• Falsifying business records (34 felony counts) to conceal a $130 k payment to adult‑film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign.Convicted on all counts in May 2024; sentenced thereafter citizensforethics.org
Classified‑documents case (federal, Florida)• Willful retention of national‑defense information (violation of the Espionage Act). • Obstruction of justice and making false statements to federal investigators.Indicted in June 2023; trial scheduled for 2025–2026 citizensforethics.org
Georgia election‑interference case (state racketeering)• Conspiracy to commit election fraud (RICO‑style charges) for pressuring state officials to “find” votes. • Solicitation of false statements and illegal procurement of voting equipment.Indicted in August 2023; trial set for 2025 citizensforethics.org
Federal election‑subversion case (Washington, D.C.)• Conspiracy to defraud the United States and obstruct an official proceeding (Jan 6, 2021 Capitol attack). • Seditious conspiracy (charges later dismissed, but the core conspiracy charge remains).Indicted in August 2023; trial ongoing in 2025‑2026 citizensforethics.org
Civil defamation suits (e.g., E. Jean Carroll, Summer Zervos)• While civil, the lawsuits allege sexual assault and harassment; they are not criminal charges, but they reflect serious accusations that have resulted in monetary judgments.Verdicts rendered in 2024‑2025; not criminal convictions but equivalent to guilty verdicts

Summary of the overall picture

  • Across the four major criminal prosecutions, Trump faces 88 distinct criminal counts covering the four categories above (business‑record falsification, classified‑document mishandling, election‑interference, and obstruction/conspiracy) citizensforethics.org.
  • These counts represent the credibly documented accusations that have led to formal indictments and, in the Manhattan case, a conviction.

Note: The list reflects only the criminal matters that have resulted in formal charges or convictions reported by reputable news outlets and official court filings. Other allegations (e.g., personal‑behaviour claims) have not led to criminal charges and therefore are not included here. Who knows what is lurking in the Epstein files?

Understanding why he has not been convicted of many of the other accusations levelled against him involves several factors that intersect law, politics, and the U.S. constitutional system:

1. Presidential Immunities and Legal Timing

  • Executive‑branch immunity – While a president is in office, the Department of Justice has historically interpreted its policy to prohibit criminal prosecution of a sitting president. This doctrine, articulated in Office of Legal Counsel memos, means that any alleged wrongdoing must wait until after the term ends.
  • Statutes of limitations – Some alleged offenses fall outside the time window for filing charges, especially when investigations began years after the conduct occurred.

2. Political and Institutional Checks

  • Congressional oversight – The House of Representatives can launch impeachment inquiries, which are political rather than criminal processes. Trump was impeached twice (first in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, second in 2021 for incitement of insurrection). Both Senate trials ended in acquittal, largely because the required two‑thirds supermajority for conviction was not reached. Surprise, surprise!
  • Separation of powers – The judiciary operates independently, but judges are appointed by presidents and confirmed by the Senate, creating a system where political considerations can influence the pace and direction of cases.

3. Nature of the Allegations

AllegationStatus (as of early 2024)Key Points
Financial and tax investigations (e.g., New York Attorney General, Manhattan District Attorney)Ongoing civil and criminal probes; several subpoenas issued; some financial records sealed.Prosecutors must prove intent to commit fraud beyond reasonable doubt; many aspects remain under investigation.
Election‑interference (Georgia, Washington, D.C.)Multiple state and federal investigations; a Georgia grand jury considered charges related to phone calls to election officials.No indictment has been filed yet; evidence is still being evaluated.
Sexual misconduct allegationsCivil lawsuits (e.g., E. Jean Carroll v. Trump) resulted in a jury finding Trump liable for sexual assault and defamation, awarding damages. Criminal charges have not been pursued at the federal level.Civil verdicts do not equate to criminal convictions; criminal statutes require higher evidentiary standards.
International law concerns (e.g., sanctions, foreign interference)Various reports and congressional hearings; no formal charges in international courts.Enforcement of international law depends on diplomatic mechanisms and treaty obligations, which can be politically contested.

4. Legal Burden of Proof

Criminal law requires proof “beyond a reasonable doubt.” Many of the allegations involve complex financial transactions, communications, or actions taken in the context of political decision‑making, making it difficult for prosecutors to meet that high standard without extensive, corroborated evidence.

5. Political Support and Public Opinion

  • Base loyalty – A substantial portion of the electorate continues to view Trump favourably, which can affect the willingness of jurors, witnesses, or elected officials to pursue aggressive action.
  • Partisan dynamics – Congressional committees and some prosecutorial offices are staffed by individuals appointed by politicians from both parties, leading to differing interpretations of the evidence and priorities.

6. Procedural Safeguards

The U.S. legal system includes numerous procedural protections (e.g., discovery rules, plea bargaining, appeals) that can lengthen investigations and delay outcomes. High‑profile cases often encounter additional scrutiny, which can both protect due process and create opportunities for strategic delays.

Bottom line

Trump has faced a range of investigations and civil judgments, but as of early 2024 no comprehensive criminal conviction has been secured for the most serious allegations. This outcome reflects a combination of:

  • Constitutional doctrines limiting prosecution of a sitting president,
  • The high evidentiary bar for criminal conviction,
  • Ongoing, sometimes fragmented investigations,
  • Political and institutional checks that shape how and when charges are brought, and
  • Persistent partisan divisions that influence both public perception and the actions of lawmakers and prosecutors.

Because many of these matters remain unresolved, the situation could change if new evidence emerges or if legal actions progress after his presidency. But when will that be if he gets his way and manipulates a third term, as he has explicitly alluded to. It is difficult to have any faith in the U.S. judicial system given how politicised it is.

Non‑Judicial paths that could limit or remove Donald Trump from power or influence:

While the formal criminal‑justice system is the primary mechanism for holding anyone accountable for unlawful conduct, the United States also has, in theory at least, a range of political, institutional, and societal levers that can “bring down” a public figure—even in an environment where the judiciary is perceived as politicised. Below are the most realistic avenues, together with the conditions that make each effective.

1. Congressional Impeachment (or a New Impeachment Attempt)

  • How it works: The House of Representatives can draft and vote on articles of impeachment. If passed, the Senate conducts a trial; a two‑thirds majority votes to convict and remove the official from office.
  • Why it matters: Impeachment is a constitutional check that does not rely on a criminal court. Even if the Senate were split along partisan lines, the very act of opening an impeachment inquiry creates a powerful political narrative and can trigger further investigations.
  • Practical hurdles:
    • Requires a majority in the House (currently Democratic‑controlled) and a super‑majority in the Senate (currently Republican‑controlled).
    • Historically, impeachment has been used sparingly against presidents; success depends on shifting Senate dynamics or extraordinary bipartisan pressure.

2. Party Discipline and Internal GOP Dynamics

  • Censure or Expulsion: The Republican National Committee (RNC) or state party committees can formally censure or even expel a member for violating party rules or damaging the party’s reputation.
  • Primary Challenges: Encouraging strong primary opponents who can rally anti‑Trump factions within the party can split the base and reduce his leverage.
  • Funding Controls: Major donors and political action committees (PACs) can withhold financial support, limiting campaign resources.

3. Public Opinion & Media Pressure

  • Polling Shifts: Sustained negative polling can erode a politician’s legitimacy. Polls that show declining approval among core supporters can prompt party leaders to distance themselves.
  • Investigative Journalism: In-depth reporting that uncovers new evidence or highlights inconsistencies can sway public sentiment and increase pressure on political allies to act.
  • Social‑Media Campaigns: Coordinated grassroots movements (e.g., petitions, boycotts, organized calls to representatives) can amplify demands for accountability.

4. Legislative Action Targeted at Specific Conduct

  • Targeted Laws or Regulations: Congress can pass legislation that narrows loopholes exploited in alleged wrongdoing (e.g., tightening campaign‑finance rules, strengthening corporate‑ownership disclosures).
  • Sanctions or Restrictions: Federal agencies can impose civil penalties, revoke licenses, or bar individuals from certain government contracts or benefits if statutory thresholds are met.
  • Benefit Denial: For example, the Office of Government Ethics could block a former president from receiving certain post‑office privileges if conflicts of interest are proven.

5. State‑Level Political Mechanisms

  • State Elections: Trump could be challenged in state races. State legislatures can also launch investigations or pass resolutions condemning misconduct.
  • State Courts & Attorney Generals: Even if federal courts are viewed as politicised, many states have independent AG offices that can pursue civil or criminal actions under state law (e.g., fraud, tax evasion).

6. Civil Litigation and Financial Consequences

  • Mass‑Tort or Class‑Action Suits: Victims of alleged wrongdoing (e.g., fraudulent business practices) can sue for damages. Large verdicts can financially cripple a political operation and deter future misconduct.
  • Bankruptcy or Asset Seizure: If civil judgments are entered and not satisfied, creditors can seek liens or forced sales of assets, reducing the individual’s capacity to fund political activities.

7. International Pressure

  • Foreign Governments & NGOs: While the U.S. sovereign legal system is primary, international human‑rights bodies or foreign governments can issue statements, impose travel bans, or limit diplomatic engagements, affecting reputation and mobility.
  • Sanctions (rare for U.S. citizens): In extreme cases, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) could target individuals for illicit activity tied to foreign jurisdictions, though this is uncommon for domestic political figures.

How These Paths Interact

MechanismTypical TimelineKey ActorsLikely Effectiveness (given current political climate)
ImpeachmentMonths–years (depends on House agenda)House leadership, Senate leadership, Judiciary CommitteeLow to moderate – requires a shift in Senate composition or extraordinary bipartisan consensus.
Party disciplineImmediate to monthsRNC, state GOP committees, major donorsModerate – can isolate the figure but may provoke backlash from loyalist factions.
Public/media pressureOngoingJournalists, activists, social‑media platformsVariable – can rapidly alter narratives, but impact depends on media reach and audience receptivity.
Legislative reforms1–2 years (bill passage)Congress, regulatory agenciesModerate – can close loopholes but may face partisan gridlock.
State‑level actionsVariableState AGs, legislatures, courtsModerate – often less partisan than federal arena, but limited scope.
Civil litigation1–5 years (case progression)Plaintiffs, courts, insurersModerate – financial penalties can be significant, though enforcement may be protracted.
International pressureSporadicForeign governments, NGOsLow – limited direct effect on domestic political standing.

Takeaways

  1. Multi‑Front Approach: Relying on a single avenue is risky. Successful accountability often comes from simultaneous pressure—legal, political, and public.
  2. Leverage Election Cycles: Voter sentiment tends to crystallise around elections; mobilising opposition voters and encouraging strong primary challengers can be decisive.
  3. Focus on Institutional Integrity: Strengthening independent oversight bodies (e.g., ethics commissions, inspector generals) reduces reliance on partisan courts.
  4. Maintain Public Transparency: Transparent investigations and clear communication of findings help sustain momentum and prevent “political fatigue.”
  5. Monitor Shifts in Party Dynamics: Changes in GOP leadership, donor attitudes, or grassroots activism can quickly alter the calculus for supporting or opposing a figure like Trump.

Bottom line: The U.S. judiciary is critically politicised. There remaining constitutionally grounded mechanisms—impeachment, electoral defeat, party discipline, legislative reform, civil litigation, and sustained public pressure—that can curtail or remove a former president’s influence are weaker than ever. The effectiveness of each route depends heavily on the prevailing political landscape, the willingness of institutions to act independently, and the level of civic engagement driving demand for accountability. Trump is working hard to hobble all of these.

Given the above and given the political polarisation and geographical splits in the country, it is hard to see how Trump can be reined in other than by something close to civil war. The MAGA right-wingers are already armed to the teeth and the left are cowered. But at some point, they have to rise and resist or else they will sleepwalk into a fascist nightmare.

How the Trump administration can be interpreted as displaying fascist‑like traits:

Below is a synthesis of the most‑cited scholarly and journalistic analyses (Eco’s “Ur‑Fascism”, Paxton’s fascist checklist, Parenti’s five functions, etc.). Each point notes the evidence that scholars have highlighted, followed by a brief comment on the limits of the comparison.

1. Cult of Personality & Charismatic Leadership

  • Evidence: Historians cited in the Wikipedia entry on “Donald Trump and fascism” argue that Trump’s post‑2024 assassination‑attempt rhetoric amplified a “cult of personality” that positioned him as a quasi‑mythic figure protecting the nation from an imagined enemy.
  • Interpretation: Fascist movements traditionally rally around a charismatic leader who claims to embody the nation’s destiny. Trump’s self‑portrayal as the sole defender of “America” mirrors this pattern, though critics note the absence of a formal party‑wide doctrine that typically accompanies classic fascist cults.

2. Ultra‑nationalism & Exclusionary Rhetoric

  • Evidence: Multiple analyses (e.g., Fair Observer, Parenti) highlight Trump’s repeated framing of immigrants, “the left,” and other groups as existential threats, urging “purity” of the nation and advocating policies that segregate or exclude those deemed outsiders fairobserver.comnewamerica.org.
  • Interpretation: This aligns with fascist emphasis on a “pure” community and the vilification of “others.” The administration’s family‑separation policy and travel bans are cited as concrete policy manifestations of that rhetoric.

3. “War on Knowledge” – Undermining Independent Truth Sources

  • Evidence: FactsoverFeelings’ evidence‑based analysis notes a systematic “war on knowledge,” where the administration attacked scientific agencies, academic institutions, and the press, seeking to replace expert authority with partisan narratives factsoverfeelings.org.
  • Interpretation: Fascist regimes often suppress dissenting intellectual voices to consolidate power. While the U.S. retained a free press, the repeated delegitimization of mainstream media resembles this facet.

4. Reliance on Extra-legal Executive Power & Disregard for Judicial Authority

  • Evidence: Rolling Stone’s “Guide to Trump’s Fascist Presidency” documents numerous instances where the administration ignored court orders (e.g., deportations to Central America, defying injunctions on immigration policy) and threatened judges who ruled against it rollingstone.com.
  • Interpretation: Fascist governments typically bypass constitutional checks. The Trump administration’s pattern of flouting judicial decisions suggests an authoritarian tilt, though it never fully abolished judicial review.

5. Mobilisation of Mass Action & Encouragement of Violence

  • Evidence: The January 6 Capitol attack, framed by Trump as a protest against a “stolen” election, is frequently referenced as an example of encouraging mass confrontation with democratic institutions.
  • Interpretation: Fascist movements historically employ paramilitary or mass‑mobilised violence to intimidate opponents. The lack of an organized paramilitary wing distinguishes the U.S. case, but the rhetoric that incited the crowd bears resemblance.

6. Economic Nationalism & Protection of Elite Interests

  • Evidence: Analyses (e.g., New America) point to “natalistic” policies combined with tax cuts favouring corporations and the wealthy, echoing fascist economic strategies that protect entrenched elites while promoting a nationalist agenda.
  • Interpretation: While not a centrally planned economy, the alignment of fiscal policy with nationalist messaging parallels historic fascist economies.

It might be a stretch to call the Trump administration a fascist regime at the moment, but the direction of travel seems undeniable. This was underlined by a news article I read just yesterday, that partly prompted me to put this blog piece together, that is about experts warning that the U.S. is already preparing for a genocide against transgender Americans. It is well worth reading. https://www.importantcontext.news/p/experts-warn-us-in-early-stages-of

We are living through treacherous times with the world on the brink of numerous inter-connected catastrophes. As throughout history, there are a few global actors that will impact on all our lives if allowed to do so. It is a critical moment in history for global, international, and national institutions (the U.N., N.A.T.O. and western democracies in particular) and we need to realise the importance of each of us in standing up and being counted.

Image inspired by Peter May’s photograph of a statue representing “Die Gute” (Goodness) on Dresden Town Hall which was left overlooking the ruins of the town in 1946. http://www.radicalteatowel.com

Why Brits hate Donald Trump as a person but should also fear his fascistic influence.

Of course, not all Brits hate Donald Trump. I suspect quite a few Reform voters and Farage fans hold him in quite high esteem as he represents all the values they hold dear. There is a huge irony in this because Trump is an affront to many true British values; values you would expect Reform’s faux Christian nationalism (a contradiction in terms as it is) to respect rather than parody.

I’ve been reminded recently of the brilliant profile of Trump written by a British guy, named Nate White, to this question on Twitter/X:

“Why do many British people not like Donald Trump?”

His response is way better than anything I could have come up with:

A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem. For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed. So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing – not once, ever. I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility – for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman. But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is – his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers. And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults – he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It’s all surface. Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront. Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul. And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist. Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that. He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat. He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.

And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully. That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a snivelling sidekick instead. There are unspoken rules to this stuff – the Queensberry rules of basic decency – and he breaks them all. He punches downwards – which a gentleman should, would, could never do – and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless – and he kicks them when they are down.

So the fact that a significant minority – perhaps a third – of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think ‘Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy’ is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:

• Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.

• You don’t need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.

This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss. After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum. God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid. He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart. In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws – he would make a Trump.

And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish: ‘My God… what… have… I… created?’ If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set.

Bravo!

Most of our right-wing scumbags, as much as they aspire to Trump’s position of power and largely share his values and agenda, are not quite as bad as Trump. Farage is more articulate, Johnson is better read, Truss is no sexual predator, Yaxley-Lennon shows no signs of dementia, Badenoch is not (quite) a white supremacist.

These disgusting people all play the populist tunes. Right‑wing populism is a broad, trans‑national phenomenon, but scholars and observers consistently identify several recurring “threads” that shape its discourse and appeal. While the exact mix varies from country to country, the following elements tend to appear together in most right‑wing populist movements:

1. Anti‑elitist / “People vs. Establishment” Narrative

  • Core claim: A morally pure, homogeneous “people” is being betrayed by corrupt, out‑of‑touch elites (politicians, bureaucrats, mainstream media, academia, global institutions).
  • Rhetorical function: Positions the movement as the authentic voice of ordinary citizens, justifying a demand for “real” representation and often for sweeping institutional reforms.

2. Nativism and Cultural Identity

  • Emphasis on national/ethnic homogeneity: Populists stress a historic, cultural, or linguistic identity that they argue is under threat.
  • Us‑vs‑them framing: Immigrants, minorities, or culturally distinct groups are portrayed as outsiders who dilute or endanger the nation’s character.
  • Cultural conservatism: Defence of traditional values (family, religion, language) against perceived liberal or progressive erosion.

3. Opposition to Immigration and Multiculturalism

  • Security and economic arguments: Migrants are framed as competitors for jobs, welfare resources, or as security risks.
  • Symbolic dimension: Immigration becomes a proxy for broader anxieties about change, loss of control, and the perceived “globalist” agenda.

4. Scepticism of Globalization and International Institutions

  • Economic protectionism: Calls for tariffs, trade barriers, or “fair‑trade” policies to protect domestic industries and workers.
  • Political sovereignty: Critique of supranational bodies (EU, UN, WTO) as eroding national decision‑making power.
  • Narrative of “global elite”: Global financial or technocratic elites are blamed for economic dislocation and social unrest.

5. Law‑and‑Order Emphasis

  • Strong‑hand governance: Advocacy for tougher policing, stricter criminal penalties, and decisive executive authority.
  • Security framing: Links crime, terrorism, or social disorder to immigration or multicultural policies, reinforcing a “protect the people” stance.

6. Charismatic Leadership and Direct Communication

  • Personalist style: Leaders present themselves as outsiders who bypass traditional party structures and speak directly to the public (often via social media).
  • Simplified messaging: Slogans, catchphrases, and emotionally charged language replace nuanced policy debate, making the narrative easy to spread.

7. Economic Populism Coupled with Cultural Conservatism

  • “Left‑right blend”: While socially conservative, many right‑wing populists adopt economically redistributive rhetoric (e.g., “the rich are exploiting the common folk”) to broaden appeal.
  • Welfare chauvinism: Support for social benefits is conditioned on national belonging—welfare for “the people,” not for immigrants or foreigners.

8. Conspiracy‑Oriented Worldview (Variable Intensity)

  • Hidden agendas: Allegations that hidden forces (global financiers, secret cabals, foreign powers) manipulate events behind the scenes.
  • Media distrust: Mainstream outlets are dismissed as part of the conspiracy, reinforcing reliance on alternative information channels.

9. Reaction to Perceived Moral Decline

  • Cultural backlash: Opposition to progressive social changes (e.g., LGBTQ+ rights, gender equality measures) framed as defending “traditional morals.”
  • Nostalgia for a “golden age”: Idealizing a past era when the nation was supposedly more cohesive, prosperous, and morally upright.

How These Threads Interact

  • Synergy: Anti‑elitism fuels distrust of both domestic institutions and international bodies, while nativist sentiment provides a clear “other” to blame for societal problems.
  • Regional variation: In Europe, the immigration/nativist component is often dominant; in Latin America, anti‑globalization and anti‑establishment rhetoric may take precedence; in the United States, a mix of cultural conservatism, law‑and‑order, and economic populism is typical.
  • Policy outcomes: The combination often leads to proposals for stricter border controls, reduced influence of supranational entities, deregulation of certain economic sectors, and expanded executive powers.

Takeaway

Right‑wing populism is not monolithic, but its most common threads revolve around a people‑versus‑elite narrative, defense of a homogeneous national identity, opposition to immigration and globalization, law‑and‑order emphasis, and charismatic, direct leadership. Understanding these recurring themes helps explain why such movements can adapt to diverse political contexts while maintaining a recognizable ideological core.

And what does this all translate into when they get into power? Taking a closer look at Trump, Orban, Meloni, Modi, Erdogan, Milei, et al, shows us what to expect when they get into power.

 

Populist ThreadHow It Shows Up in Government ActionIllustrative Examples (generic)
Anti‑elitist “people vs establishment”• Frequent attacks on civil servants, judges, and independent agencies as “out‑of‑touch elites”. • Attempts to centralise decision‑making in the executive or in a charismatic leader’s office. • Use of referenda or “direct democracy” mechanisms to bypass parliamentary debate.A prime‑minister appoints loyalists to key ministries, dismisses senior career officials, and calls a national vote on a flagship policy.
Nativism & cultural identity• Tightening citizenship, language, and integration requirements. • Symbolic legislation that foregrounds national symbols (flags, anthems, holidays). • Policies that privilege “native” cultural practices in education and public broadcasting.Laws mandating that school curricula teach a “national heritage” module and that public broadcasters allocate a minimum percentage of airtime to locally produced content.
Opposition to immigration & multiculturalism• Rapidly enacted border‑control measures (e.g., visa bans, asylum‑procedure shortcuts). • Reduction or elimination of pathways for family reunification. • Public‑funded campaigns that frame migrants as security/economic threats.Introduction of a “fast‑track” deportation procedure for undocumented arrivals and a law restricting the number of work permits issued annually.
Scepticism of globalization & supranational bodies• Withdrawal from or renegotiation of trade agreements, EU‑style treaties, or multinational accords. • Promotion of “economic sovereignty” through tariffs, subsidies for domestic producers, or state‑owned enterprises. • Creation of parallel national regulatory frameworks that override international standards.Imposing import duties on foreign agricultural products while subsidising local farmers and filing a formal objection to a regional trade bloc’s environmental directive.
Law‑and‑order emphasis• Expansion of police powers, longer detention periods, and harsher sentencing guidelines. • Creation of special courts or tribunals for “national security” or “public order” cases. • Public‑security rhetoric used to justify emergency decrees.Passing a law that allows police to conduct searches without a warrant in designated “high‑risk” zones and establishing a “national security court” with expedited procedures.
Charismatic leadership & direct communication• Centralised decision‑making around a single figure; frequent use of social media, rallies, and televised addresses to set the agenda. • Bypassing traditional party structures or legislative committees in favour of “executive orders”. • Personal loyalty becomes a key criterion for appointments.The head of state issues a series of executive decrees on economic reform, each announced via a live broadcast rather than parliamentary debate.
Economic populism paired with cultural conservatism• Welfare programmes targeted specifically at native citizens (“welfare chauvinism”). • Protectionist fiscal policies combined with tax cuts for small‑business owners seen as “the backbone of the nation”. • Subsidies for industries tied to national identity (e.g., agriculture, mining).Introducing a “citizen benefit” that grants a cash allowance to families with three or more children who are citizens, while cutting benefits for non‑citizen residents.
Conspiracy‑oriented worldview• Legislative inquiries or investigations aimed at “foreign influence” networks, often lacking transparent evidence. • Restrictions on NGOs, foreign‑funded media, or academic institutions labelled as “agents of the global elite”. • Use of secrecy or classified briefings to reinforce the narrative of hidden threats.Enacting a law that requires NGOs receiving foreign funding to disclose donors publicly and subjects them to quarterly audits.
Moral‑decline backlash• Policies that restrict abortion, same‑sex marriage, or gender‑affirming care, framed as protecting “family values”. • Education reforms that limit sex‑education curricula or promote “traditional morality” lessons. • Funding cuts to cultural projects deemed “degenerate” or “non‑national”.Passing a bill that bans gender‑neutral bathrooms in public buildings and revises school textbooks to remove references to LGBTQ+ histories.

Common Governance Patterns

  1. Centralisation of Power – Decision‑making is concentrated in the executive or in the leader’s inner circle, often justified by the need to act swiftly for the “people”.
  2. Legislative Bypass – Frequent use of referenda, executive orders, or emergency decrees to sidestep parliamentary opposition.
  3. Targeted Welfare – Social safety nets are reshaped to favor native citizens, reinforcing the “us vs. them” narrative.
  4. Regulatory Roll‑backs – Environmental, consumer‑protection, or labor regulations are loosened under the banner of protecting national industry and reducing “bureaucratic overreach”.
  5. Symbolic Nationalism – High‑visibility actions (renaming streets, erecting monuments, emphasizing national holidays) serve to cement a shared identity and signal the government’s commitment to cultural preservation.
  6. Media Control & Narrative Shaping – State‑run outlets receive preferential treatment; independent or foreign media are labeled as “fake news” or “propaganda”, limiting dissenting viewpoints.
  7. Polarising Rhetoric – Policy announcements are framed in stark moral terms (“protect our children”, “defend our sovereignty”), which consolidates the base but can deepen societal divisions.

Why These Behaviours Matter

  • Policy Stability: Rapid, top‑down changes can create legal uncertainty for businesses and civil society.
  • Institutional Trust: Persistent attacks on the judiciary, media, and bureaucracy can erode long‑term confidence in democratic institutions.
  • Social Cohesion: Targeted welfare and anti‑immigration measures may exacerbate ethnic or cultural tensions.
  • International Relations: Withdrawal from multilateral agreements can strain diplomatic ties and affect trade, security cooperation, and investment flows.

Understanding these patterns helps anticipate how right‑wing populist parties will translate their campaign themes into concrete governmental actions, and it highlights the areas where checks and balances become especially crucial.

It also needs to be understood how such measures are a stepping-stone to outright fascism. Right‑wing populism shares many traits with fascism—especially the emphasis on a strong, charismatic leader, a “people versus elite” narrative, and a defensive stance toward national identity. However, most contemporary right‑wing populist movements lack the core ideological and structural components that define classical fascism, such as an explicit totalitarian vision, a revolutionary myth of rebirth, systematic suppression of all dissent, and a corporatist economic model directed by the state. But there are clear signs that these are on the future agenda of right-wing populist and/or are being introduced stealthily in small increments.

Core defining elements of fascism:

FeatureWhat it means in classic fascism (e.g., Mussolini, Nazi Germany)
Ideological mythA belief in a historic or racial “rebirth” that requires a radical break with the current hegemony.
Totalitarian ambitionThe aim to control politics, economics, culture, and private life through a single party/state apparatus.
Cult of the leaderThe leader is portrayed as the embodiment of the nation’s destiny, often with quasi‑religious reverence.
Corporatist economyThe state organizes society into corporate groups (industry, labour, etc.) that are subordinated to the regime’s goals.
Militarism & expansionismAggressive foreign policy, glorification of war, and territorial conquest are central.
Systematic repressionAll opposition—political parties, independent media, civil society—is outlawed or violently crushed.
Mass mobilizationOrganized paramilitary squads, mass rallies, and propaganda are used to forge a unified, obedient populace.

All of these are patently evident in Trump’s MAGA America.

  • MAGA literally embodies the myth that 50’s America was great.
  • Trump talks openly of dismantling the constitution to give him a third term, along with his threats to manipulate the electoral system.
  • He fosters his brand image and cult status with followers at every opportunity, even producing his “God Bless the USA Bible”.
  • The Trump Corporation has grown in reach and wealth substantially during his tenure as President. (More below.)
  • Far from the being the “Peace President”, he has negotiated deals that benefit him and the USA rather than brokered peace settlements that can endure. He is effectively waging war on Venezuela and has designs on taking over Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal.
  • His pressure on and repression of the media and any voices of opposition get bolder and more disturbing.
  • He has sent troops into numerous USA states controlled by Democrats already and has long used mass rallies and propaganda to cement his support.

That right-wing populist leaders succeed in conning ordinary working people that they have their best interests at heart is one of their most bewildering but undeniable achievements. Witness the vast Tory corruption during Covid as one of the most blatant examples. But it is historically much more discreet in this country. Trump, of course, has no concept of discretion.

Trump appointed one of his real-estate developer mates, Steve Witkoff as Middle-East envoy and a special envoy in the Ukraine War negotiations. They are rubbing their hands with glee at thoughts of re-developing Gaza into the “Middle-East’s Riviera”; Trump’s ‘Project Sunrise’. And Witkoff caused a bit of a stir when it was leaked that he was briefing Russian officials that one of the best ways to get what they want out of Trump is to effectively ‘grease his palms’. Trump’s reaction to this revelation was simply that it was “what a dealmaker does”!

Such abuse of power for personal gain is nothing new of course (witness the personal fortunes accrued by relative lefties like Blair and Kinnock for example), but the sheer scale of Trump’s brazenness is hard to grasp.

Every US president since the 1970s has voluntarily adhered to rules designed to prevent conflicts of interest, typically by placing their businesses into blind trusts and stepping away from direct management. But things have been astonishingly different with Trump, who argues that he is not directly involved with his business because his children manage the Trump Organization. This argument persists even though profits from the family business obviously flow straight back to him.

Respected Lebanese-USA journalist, Mohamad Bazzi, has done a lot of work investigating the Trump families’ dealings in the Middle East. Talking to Aamna Mohdin in the Guardian’s First Edition newsletter, published on 29/12/2025, Bazzi said:

“It’s difficult to keep up with all the ways that Trump and his family have been profiting from the presidency,” Bazzi says. “A lot of the deals that have emerged are with international players – whether they’re companies, billionaires, governments – that want to make nice with the US president. They’ve seen that one quick way to please Donald Trump is by enriching his family business.”

Bazzi pointed to the Trump Organization’s increasing number of real estate deals with companies in Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. These companies, he says, have connections to their respective countries’ sovereign wealth funds or, in some cases, to their royal families. Bazzi says that these partnerships involve billions of dollars’ worth of real estate transactions and new golf course developments.

“In many of those cases, the Trump Organization isn’t putting up its own capital. They are branding deals where the Trump Organization leases the Trump name to these developers and they put in all the capital and investment to create these developments. The Trump family gets a licensing fee as well as a 20- or 30-year operating licence to manage these sites,” he adds.

Recent disclosures showed Dar Al Arkan, a publicly traded Saudi real estate developer, paid the Trump Organization $21.9m (£16.4m) in license fees in 2024 for projects in Dubai and Oman.

The Trump family business also ventured into crypto, launching a dollar-sign Trump meme coin days before his second inauguration. According to Bazzi, this coin’s value is purely speculative, but has still proved to be profitable for the family. “Ultimately, Trump and his family are raking in millions of dollars in fees as the coin is being traded back and forth. And so the crypto ventures provided the Trump family with new ways to profit from being in office,” he says.

It goes on and on. Trump rolled out the red carpet for Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) when the latter visited the White House in November. Shortly after Trump’s re-election, the prince pledged to invest $600bn (£449bn) in the US economy over the next four years. A year later at the White House, he promised to increase that investment to $1tn.

When asked what countries such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations were receiving in return for the eye-watering sums of money they had pledged to the US economy or to the Trump family, Bazzi replied:

“In Saudi Arabia’s case, it’s been this guaranteed defence pact that Trump announced when MBS visited him at the White House. He announced something similar, through executive order, for Qatar last October. Trump has promised the US will come to their defence if attacked, and promised to sell advanced US weaponry,” he says.

Working out exactly how much Trump has profited from the Presidency is very difficult. Forbes estimate his pre-presidency personal net worth at $3.7 billion and his current (December 2025) net worth at around $7 billion. But his greed seems insatiable and he no doubt aspires to achieving dictatorship as that is a means to accumulating much greater wealth. He would start off at number 10 in this historical list of the wealthiest dictators, adjusted to approximate modern USD equivalents where possible (as compiled by ChatGPT):

Wealthiest Dictators in History (Estimated)

1. Mansa Musa (Mali Empire, r. 1312–1337)

Estimated wealth: $400–600+ billion (modern equivalent)

  • Often cited as the wealthiest individual in human history, not just a dictator.
  • Controlled vast gold and salt reserves.
  • His 1324 pilgrimage to Mecca reportedly caused gold inflation across North Africa and the Middle East.

2. Augusto Pinochet (Chile, r. 1973–1990)

Estimated wealth: $3–28 billion

  • Secret offshore accounts revealed after his arrest.
  • Wealth far exceeded official salary.
  • Funds traced to corruption, kickbacks, and embezzlement.

3. Ferdinand Marcos (Philippines, r. 1965–1986)

Estimated wealth: $5–10+ billion

  • Massive theft from public funds.
  • Thousands of artworks, jewelry, real estate, and Swiss bank accounts.
  • Famous for Imelda Marcos’s luxury spending.

4. Suharto (Indonesia, r. 1967–1998)

Estimated wealth: $15–35 billion

  • Ranked by Transparency International as the most corrupt leader of the 20th century.
  • Wealth accumulated via monopolies, bribes, and control over state resources.

5. Joseph Stalin (Soviet Union, r. 1924–1953)

Estimated wealth: Indirect control over trillions (state wealth)

  • Personally lived modestly, but exercised absolute control over the USSR’s resources.
  • His power over economic assets far exceeded that of most modern billionaires.

6. Muammar Gaddafi (Libya, r. 1969–2011)

Estimated wealth: $30–200 billion (disputed)

  • Controlled oil revenues and sovereign funds.
  • Used state money for personal and political projects worldwide.
  • Exact personal wealth remains unclear.

7. Mobutu Sese Seko (Zaire/DRC, r. 1965–1997)

Estimated wealth: $4–15 billion

  • Infamous for kleptocracy.
  • Embezzled state funds while the country collapsed economically.
  • Built palaces while the population lived in poverty.

8. Kim Jong-il / Kim Jong-un (North Korea)

Estimated wealth: $5–10+ billion (family-controlled)

  • Wealth tied to secret accounts, illicit trade, and state-controlled enterprises.
  • Luxury spending despite nationwide famine conditions.

9. Saddam Hussein (Iraq, r. 1979–2003)

Estimated wealth: $2–20 billion

  • Hidden cash, gold, and foreign accounts.
  • Profited from oil smuggling and corruption under sanctions.

We need to fear anybody that thinks they can seize control of our government and undermine our hard-won rights and freedoms.

Currently, these are most directly threatened by the right-wing populists gaining traction by the tried and tested strategy of scapegoating vulnerable minorities and suppressing rights to protest. This is the thin edge of a very dangerous wedge that is being driven into our societies to create division and chaos from which they can profit. We need to voice our opposition and take on the misguided fools seduced by these snake oil salesmen. The consequences otherwise are dire and clear enough from history.

As Edmund Burke is paraphrased as saying: “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

I could equally have cited the famous Niemöller quote, but I think it might need updating in light of the current wave of right-wing authoritarian populism:

First, they attacked the truth,
and I did not speak out—
because it was confusing, and I trusted authority.

Then they singled out outsiders and dissenters,
and I did not speak out—
because I was told they were dangerous.

Then they attacked the press,
and I did not speak out—
because I did not trust the media.

Then they weakened independent institutions,
and I did not speak out—
because it was done in the name of order.

Then they concentrated power and dismissed accountability,
and I did not speak out—
because I believed it would never turn on me.

Then they erased our personal freedoms
and there was no one left who was allowed to speak.

What to make of the proposed Ukraine peace deal.

The first point to make is that this deal is a carve up between Trump and Putin. It puts Ukraine in an invidious position and makes it hard to accept for its failure to include Ukraine in the negotiations.

With Trump threatening to hang Ukraine out to dry if it doesn’t accept the deal by Thanksgiving (perverse as that is, but what should we expect from a pervert), it is no wonder that Zelensky and European leaders are in a spin.

As details emerge of this deal, we can see Trump’s fingerprints all over it. The key points appear to be:

  • Territorial concessions: Ukraine would formally recognise Russian control of Crimea and the occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, while Russia would retain de‑facto authority over those regions.
  • NATO status: Ukraine would be barred from joining NATO, though it would receive “unspecified security guarantees” from the West.
  • Sanctions and economic ties: Existing sanctions on Russia would be lifted, and the United States would resume cooperation with Russia on energy and other industrial sectors.
  • Energy arrangement: The United States would take operational control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and supply electricity to both Ukraine and Russia.
  • Security guarantees: Western countries would provide security assurances to Ukraine despite the loss of NATO membership, aiming to prevent further aggression.
  • Frozen Russian assets: These assets are to be used to help rebuild Ukraine, with the USA overseeing this and taking 50% of any profits made.

This smacks of the same sort of approach as Trump has exhibited towards Gaza. It takes no account of the views of the innocent civilians living in the areas being carved up. It treats the areas as little more than real estate and business opportunities, driven as ever by the greed and profit-motive that seems to be the only thing that motivates Trump to get involved in anything.

Of course, the citizens of Ukraine and Russia will naturally be relieved at the end of a war that has had such dire consequences in terms of loss of lives and damage to property, but it seems they will get very little from this deal.

The causalities to date are truly horrific. I have seen estimates ranging from 800,000 to 1 million dead on the Russian side, with 400,000 to 700,000 dead on the Ukraine side. There are tens of thousands missing and unaccounted for too. Add to this the injuries and long-term disabilities, the displacement of people from their homes leading to a mass exodus of refugees mostly into EU countries and the mental health impacts of all this and conscription, and the human costs are staggering.

And then there is the huge damage to infrastructure, homes, and the environment to consider. And all for what? Answers on a postcard please! It is easy to understand why the majority of Ukrainian and Russian civilians want a negotiated peace desperately.

But Starmer and the EU leaders are opposed. The official line is that this is because they are concerned for the Ukrainian people who should be involved in negotiations and who can’t be allowed to have sacrificed so much in vain. It is nothing to do with (officially) the massive rearmament programme and the convenient excuse to increase military spending while continuing to inflict austerity on their people. European leaders are now committed to getting themselves on a war footing and to continuing the expansion and strengthening of NATO. Ukraine is now the victim of a proxy war between Western Europe and Russia, to all intents and purposes. And Trump is lapping up all involved sucking up to him, metaphorically fellating him even, as he relishes effectively franchising out USA military operations in Europe while extracting great economic and political leverage. If he is to keep USA committed to NATO, it is going to be on his extortionate terms. Otherwise, he’s quite willing and capable of standing by as Europe crashes and burns.

Thus, for the time being at least, it is in the interests of Zelensky, the EU leaders and Starmer to keep the war going. Zelensky is in deep shit when the conflict ends. He has been haemorrhaging popularity across the country and faces a huge corruption scandal. He needs to win the war to survive and can only do that with NATO backing. The European members of NATO are more than happy to provide assistance and weaponry but are rightly wary of allowing it to escalate into full-blown war between them and Russia, mainly for fear of near inevitable nuclear escalation.

Things have reached something of a stalemate and Trump, ever the opportunist, sees now as a time to force the hands of Zelensky and Putin. That it will likely look similar to the terms on the table four years, rendering the immense losses since pointless, is just another layer of tragedy.

There had been violent conflict over the Donbas for years, with legitimate concerns in the Russian speaking population over rights and language. Russian long-standing opposition to the expansion of NATO was never properly acknowledged either. There is no evidence that NATO poses any sort of existential threat to Russia, but independent analyses (e.g., the Quincy Institute) note that NATO’s combined conventional forces, especially airpower and advanced missile systems, far exceed Russia’s current operational capacity. In a hypothetical full‑scale NATO‑Russia war, Russia would likely suffer decisive losses, which underpins its “existential” rhetoric. But it also underlines the USA’s critical role in determining the balance of power. Trump seems intent on maximising the leverage this gives him on both sides for his own benefit and what he perceives as the USA’s benefit.

Zelenskyy addressed the nation, saying Ukraine was faced with a choice of “losing our dignity or the risk of losing our key partner”. He spoke of an extremely difficult week ahead, and of unbearable pressure being put on Kyiv.

Trump, for his part, is in a hurry, reportedly keen to get a deal done before Thanksgiving next Thursday, and perhaps with one eye on the “Fifa peace prize”, apparently created solely as a gift to his ego, which he is expected to be given at the World Cup draw in Washington DC on 5 December.

As the Grauniad’s Shaun Walker put it a few days ago:

“For all the public bravado, there has been a private admission in some parts of the Ukrainian elite that a deal may need to be done sooner rather than later, even if everyone sees Moscow as a bad-faith negotiating partner.”

Thus, this may well prove to be Trump’s crowning achievement, not that he has any interest in the suffering born by the people on the ground or their futures ahead. Given that the region is now awash with weaponry, real long-lasting peace is highly unlikely. And given that the tensions and paranoia across Europe have been cranked up so high, we will continue to welfare budgets sacrificed for warfare spending.

As ever, it is the military-industrial complex and its doyens that are the only ones to gain anything from such conflicts.

Caerphilly by-election result is best news for a long time.

This was great news on so many levels. First and foremost, with most polls I saw having Deform UK slightly ahead, there is the huge relief in seeing them comfortably pushed back into second place in the end.

The poll also supports the growing evidence that the Conservative Party is a ‘dead man walking’; well, just about staggering. As far as Wales is concerned, it may finally collapse into its final resting place in next year’s Senedd elections. Fingers crossed!

Leanne Wood established Plaid Cymru as a left of centre eco-socialist leaning party, but one that still harboured some right-wing nationalists. It has taken a long time for it to gain credibility as a genuine, trustworthy, left of centre party. When Leanne stepped away it lost momentum for a while. But now, as Welsh Labour’s treachery and role in undermining the Corbyn project, that had the overwhelming support of socialists across Wales, and their consequent support for the disgusting knight of the realm, Starmer, who actively purged true socialists from the Labour Party, it is now clear that the Welsh public have had enough.

And Labour look destined to receive a mighty, long-overdue comeuppance next year too. This is a hugely emblematic result that signifies, I believe, that the people of Wales now have the courage to re-assert themselves as pioneers of progressive change. Remember that the Chartist movement took root in South Wales; that the Merthyr Rising was a key staging post in the establishment of Trade Unions; and, that the NHS was born in Wales. This is why the Labour Party was for such a long time the party of Wales. And it is why ever since Welshman Neil Kinnock scrapped Clause 4 and laid the groundwork for the shift right that became entrenched by Blair (and now re-inforced by Blair v.2.0 Starmer) it has slowly drifted away from serving the interests of the Welsh people.

Thus, this by-election was always a two horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. The full Senedd elections next year look set to be the same, although Labour will not go down without a fight, and that may well let Reform UK in, in quite a few places at least.

Reform UK are a problem that is not going away any time soon. They are riding the wave of right-wing populism that has swept vast parts of the globe by offering the tried and tested formula of simplistic scape-goating of vulnerable minorities allied with MAGA (Make Anywhere Great Again) mentalities of bringing back the ‘good old days’, without pointing out just who benefitted most in those ‘good old days’ before free health care for all, before ‘women’s liberation’, before strong trade unions, before environmental protection measures.

The turn out in this by-election was encouraging, although scraping 50% is hardly impressive. But is double that of many by-elections. And it brought out enough thinking people to repel Reform. Farage said that they had a target of getting 12,000 votes, believing that would be enough to win. They did indeed get 12,000 votes but the higher than anticipated turnout saw PC surge from a projected 11,000 votes to a resounding 16,000 votes in the end. Fear of the prospect of Reform winning would seem the likely prompt that 5,000 people needed.

Seeing some to the BBC interviews with Caerphilly residents today (the day after the election) who didn’t vote offers a bit more cause for optimism. All the ones I saw were pleased that Reform didn’t win. One was a guy his 60s who had always voted Labour, had given up on them, but couldn’t bring himself to vote for anybody else. Another was a 16 year old school lad who said he didn’t feel able to vote because he didn’t know enough. He said most of his mates were the same, and that he felt the voting age should still be 18, but did also say that those he knew that had voted had voted for Plaid Cymru. This anecdotal evidence suggests to me that PC do have scope to focus on these key demographics to generate more support next year. I hope they are taking note.

Finally, let me say how pleased I was for Lindsay Whittle, the winning candidate. The 72-year-old candidate, has been involved in electoral politics in Caerphilly for decades. He has stood in council elections 18 times, for Westminster 10 times, and for every Senedd election in the last 26 years. He previously sat as a regional MS from 2011 to 2016. He may not exactly be the future of Welsh politics, but he is living proof that commitment and dedication can pay off. I am sure that Caerphilly have themselves a wonderful advocate for the town who will repay their faith in him.

Will our ‘Kokura’s luck’ run out? (Chance, chaos and why everything we do matters)

I had the pleasure of attending a talk by Brian Klaas at the Humanist UK Convention in Cardiff in 2024, so when his new book, Fluke: chance, chaos, and why everything we do matters, came out a few months ago, I got a copy and have just started reading it. Within a few pages I am inspired to write this blog.

He opens with a story I first came across when I visited Japan in 2003. The story starts in October 1926 (a month before my father was born) when Mr H.L. Stimson, a lawyer from New York, took his wife on a romantic vacation to Japan, where they fell in love with Kyoto’s pristine gardens, magnificent historic temples, and rich heritage, just as I did.

Fast forward nnnnnineteen [sic] years and Stimson, a lifelong Republican, had become Secretary of War under Franklin D. Roosevelt, and then under Harry S. Truman when FDR died in April 1945.

Four weeks after FDR died saw the Nazis surrender and the end of the war in Europe. The focus now shifted to the Pacific and the pressure was on to bring the war of attrition there to an end. An opportunity was glimpsed to bring the Japanese to their knees by deploying ‘The Gadget’ that scientists and the military had been working on in a remote outpost in the deserts of New Mexico.

Despite no successful testing having taken placed, it was concluded that they might as well determine which of the two prototypes is most effective by dropping one of each Japan. The Target Committee therefore needed to come up with the two target cities. Kyoto came out as by far the militarists’ number one target as it was the home of Japan’s most modern warplane factories, was an intellectual centre at the forefront of pioneering technology and a cultural centre and former capital city. The second target was to be Kokura, housing the country’s largest military arsenal. The reserve targets were Yokohama and Hiroshima.

This list of four targets was passed from the Target Committee to Truman’s cabinet for ratification, at which point War Secretary Stimson vetoed the bombing of Kyoto altogether. After much toing and froing, it was agreed that Hiroshima would replace Kyoto as target number 1, while Kokura remained target number 2, with Nagasaki creeping onto the reserve list alongside Yokohama.

And so, on August 6, 1945, Little Boy fell from the Enola Gay, not on Kyoto, but on Hiroshima, killing 140,000 people, mostly civilians going about their daily lives. Meanwhile the civilians of Kyoto escaped this fate because Stimson had had a lovely time there 19 years previous.

Three days later, on August 9, Bockscar dropped Fat Man, not on Kokura, but on Nagasaki because of unexpected cloud cover in the area that did not quite extend as far as Nagasaki. Such small details determined which 80,000 ordinary Japanese folk died that day. Those clouds saved Kokura’s residents and condemned those of Nagasaki to death. To this day, the Japanese refer to “Kokura’s luck” whenever someone unknowingly escapes a disaster.

Of course, although minor details and chance events influenced which city’s populations would be annihilated, the decision to use these weapons of mass destruction at all was the culmination of a near-infinite array of arbitrary factors that lead to the rise of Emperor Hirohito, the education of Einstein, the creation of uranium by geological processes millions of years ago, etcetera, etcetera.

My mother and father would never have met, and I would therefore not exist and be writing this blog piece today, were it not for Hitler and the Nazis invading Poland in 1939; whisking a 14 year boy into forced labour in 1941; sparing his life probably just because he was so young; and him being picked up in the nick of time by the allies in 1944 who fed him back through the lines until he ended up in a hospital in Glasgow come VE Day in 1945. Without then being sold a scam ticket back home in 1948, he would never have ended up in Kent and ending up meeting a Yorkshire lass (with her own unlikely story) in Gravesend.

Whenever we explore anybody’s personal and family histories, we are likely to find numerous examples of Kokura’s luck. We all owe an inordinate amount to luck in ever being born at all, let alone to all the good (and bad fortune) in our lives.

Klaas puts it like this:

“When we consider the what-if moments, it’s obvious that arbitrary, tiny changes and seemingly random, happenstance events can divert our career paths, re-arrange our relationships, and transform how we see the world. To explain how we came to be who we are, we recognise pivot points that were often out of our control. But what we ignore are the invisible pivots, the moments that we will never realise were consequential, the near misses and near hits that are unknown to us because we have never seen, and will never see, our alternative possible lives.”

Tim Minchin puts it like this:

Klaas goes on to make the following logical and pretty darn obvious point, that really got me sitting up and taking notice:

There’s a strange disconnect in how we think about the past compared to our present. When we imagine being able to travel back in time, the warning is the same: make sure you don’t touch anything. A microscopic change to the past could fundamentally alter the world. You could even accidentally delete yourself from the future. But when it comes to the present, we never think like that…. Few panic about an irrevocably changed future after missing the bus. Instead, we imagine the little stuff doesn’t matter much because everything just gets washed out in the end. But if every detail of the past created our present, then every moment of our present is creating our future too.”

That’s a pretty sobering thought, isn’t it? I don’t think Klaas is suggesting we should get paranoid about the implications of every moment of the day (that way madness surely lies) but it does mean that much smaller things than we can imagine can have significant consequences and following this line of thinking through it means that the deliberate actions we take almost certainly will have knock-on consequences way beyond what we imagine they do. That is a very encouraging thought, isn’t it? Especially for activists that hope to change the world but struggle to see the impacts they are making in perhaps a wider perspective or longer term than we look for.

In 2011, in the conclusions chapter of my bookThe Asylum of the Universe, I wrote:

I am backing myself to be of a rare generation that suffers no major calamity in my lifetime. I hope to avoid direct involvement in war; to avoid being forcibly relocated; to avoid having to source my own food and collect my own water; and to avoid witnessing the breakdown of society around me. I have a sporting chance, I reckon.”

The odds have lengthened considerably in the intervening years.  In this time, we have seen multiple genocides, such as in Myanmar, Sudan, Syria, Central Africa and, of course, Palestine. We have seen negligible progress in averting climate catastrophe. We have seen war in Europe. We have seen a groundswell of right-wing populism around the world with fascism raising its ugly head again in Europe and other continents, including in the USA. And Putin has his hand hovering over the big red button. Sadly, technology has moved on such that the frequent cloud over South Wales cannot save us this time.

Is ‘Kokura’s luck’ running out for all of us?

Maccabi Tel Aviv FC should be expelled

Dear Aleksander Čeferin

I am writing to demand immediate action is taken to ensure that Aston Villa’s match with Maccabi Tel Aviv on 6 November does not go ahead. The FA and UEFA must work to cancel the match and expel Israel from membership from international footballing bodies. If this does not happen, Aston Villa FC must refuse to host and play the match.

Israel’s genocide against Palestinians in Gaza has killed many tens, if not hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, including many hundreds of Palestinian footballers. It has annihilated Gaza’s footballing infrastructure such as stadiums, training facilities and pitches. 

In the occupied West Bank, Israel has systematically targeted Palestinian sports infrastructure, while its military invasions of towns and refugee camps have killed scores of Palestinian footballers. Last year, Israeli forces deliberately destroyed Jenin Municipal Football Stadium during their military offensive on the city.

Allowing Israeli football teams to compete in international competitions sanitises this horrific violence and allows Israel to cynically present itself as a normal country, obscuring the truth that it is carrying out a genocide in Gaza, and imposing a regime of settler-colonialism, military occupation and apartheid against Palestinians.

The Israel Football Association directly participates in Israel’s crimes against Palestinians. It contains at least six football clubs based in illegal Israeli settlements on stolen Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank. These football teams are part of the infrastructure of Israel’s military occupation, ruled illegal by the International Court of Justice.

Maccabi Tel Aviv has itself been directly involved in Israel’s atrocities. The club has sent “care packages” to Israeli soldiers committing genocide in Gaza and organised videos of club employees serving as Israeli soldiers as motivation ahead of matches.  

Moreover, the club’s fans have a long history of anti-Palestinian racism and violence. This was exemplified in Amsterdam last year, when its fans marauded through the streets, attacking residents while chanting genocidal slogans. If the match goes ahead these fans will descend on Birmingham, putting local residents at risk of racist violence.

I am sending this letter to the FA, UEFA and Aston Villa FC to ask that each takes action respectively to ensure that the match does not go ahead. The FA and UEFA must work to cancel the match and ensure Israel is expelled from international footballing bodies. While Aston Villa FC must refuse to host and play the match.8 Min-y-Coed Brackla Brackla

Andy Chyba

https://palestinecampaign.eaction.org.uk/astonvillamatch

C’mon! Is it really harder for scientists not to believe in God?

Claims that it’s getting harder for scientists not to believe in God are right-wing Christian propaganda. Discuss.

As part of the research that I am undertaking into human spiritual beliefs, I have been undertaking a series of interviews with people from a range of backgrounds and perspectives.

The most recent interview I did was with a devout Christian physics teacher. These are always fascinating discussions; I have spoken to other religious scientists in the past. I’ll save the full details of these discussions for the book I hope to publish but save to say there was one particular assertion I encountered in this discussion last week that chimed with a few other things that I had heard and read recently.

This physics teacher asserted that the more he grew to learn about physics and its order, laws and patterns, the surer he was that there is a creator god behind it all.

Lo and behold, yesterday, just a few days after that discussion, I stumble across (or is it divine intervention?) an article published online from The Spectator entitled It’s getting harder for scientists not to believe in God”.

It is essentially an advertorial by its author, Michel-Yves Bolloré, for his new book, ‘God, The Science, The Evidence’ co-authored with Olivier Bonnassies, which I have ordered. I have ordered it because I am intrigued to see if there is actually any substance behind the assertions made in the article that I will shortly dissect for you.

But first some due diligence. I regularly point out to people the importance of checking out sources and looking for hidden agenda. It is also critical to be able to evaluate evidence presented for its rigour and authenticity. And remember, as the great Carl Sagan asserts, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

First of all, The Spectator as a source. First published in 1828, it has legitimate claims to be the oldest surviving magazine in the world. It is politically conservative, avowedly Tory even, given that editorship of the magazine has often been a step on the ladder to high office in the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom; its past editors include Boris Johnson (1999–2005) and other former cabinet members Ian Gilmour (1954–1959), Iain Macleod (1963–1965), and Nigel Lawson (1966–1970). The former Conservative MP Michael Gove took over from Fraser Nelson as editor on 4 October 2024.

Right-wing populists like Gove, Johnson and Farage have all seen the value of cosying up to Christian churches, aping Trump and his MAGA followers in the USA, as it is another lever to pull in divisive identity politics and scapegoating that is the bedrock of their approaches to building support. It is also why they like to undermine scientific expertise and consensus that undermines their objectives. Climate change scepticism, anti-vaccination propaganda, abortion and fertility rights are all examples that come to mind. Let us not forget that Michael Gove famously said, “I think the people of this country have had enough of experts”.

So, let us now consider the author of this article and book that Gove has platformed in The Spectator. Who is this man asserting it’s getting harder for scientists not to believe in God, Michel-Yves Bolloré?

Michel-Yves Bolloré is a French engineer, entrepreneur, and author known for his work in both industrial innovation and education. He has a strong academic background, holding degrees in computer science, applied mathematics, and business management. Michel-Yves Bolloré is part of the prominent Bolloré family, known for their significant wealth and influence in France. The family’s fortune primarily stems from the Bolloré Group, a conglomerate involved in logistics, media, and telecommunications. The family’s net worth is estimated at $8 billion. Michel-Yves Bolloré’s wealth is intertwined with the family’s business ventures and his own entrepreneurial efforts, contributing to their status as one of France’s wealthiest families. He is a lifelong Catholic. He has lived in London since 2011. He sponsored several Catholic academy schools in London during Gove’s tenure as Education Secretary.

Having presented the factual background to those responsible for this article, I will leave it to you to judge the credentials of the author and publisher, and whether they may have agenda being served by it.

Time to turn to the article itself. I’ll copy a paragraph at a time, in bold italics, then give my evaluation of it.

Many Baby Boomers are sceptical about God. They think that believing in a higher power is probably incompatible with rationality. Over the last few centuries, religious belief has appeared to be in rapid decline, and materialism (the idea that the physical world is all there is to reality) has been on the rise, as the natural outcome of modern science and reason.

Baby Boomers are generally regarded as people born between about 1945 and 1965, so aged about 60 to 80 at the time of writing. Bolloré was born in 1945 and I was born in 1962. We are both Baby Boomers. What does the last census of 2021 reveal about generational differences in having “No religion” (the census wording that would cover people sceptical about God)?

On this population pyramid, Baby Boomers would be aged 56-76 for the coloured bars and 46-66 for the 2011 outline. It is patently clear that currently the generation with the greatest religious scepticism is the 20-40 age group in 2021, whereas the Baby Boomers and their elders are the least likely to report having ‘no religion’ with this being even more strongly so now than ten years previously. The ONS reports that in 2021 18.6% of the population was over aged 65, but only 8.8% of those claiming ‘no religion’ were over aged 65. Overall, 37.2% of respondents claimed ‘no religion’ (a rise 12 % points in 10 years). Meanwhile Christianity fell below 50% for the first time ever, to 46.2% (a fall of 13.1% points in 10 years).

So, it is unclear why Bolloré chooses to pick out Baby Boomers scepticism about God. The majority of younger people are sceptical, whereas the majority of Boomers and older are apparently not!

Perhaps it is something to do with so many eminent and well-known sceptics coming from our approximate generation – Sagan, Dawkins, Dennett, Hitchens, Harris et al. Certainly, I wouldn’t contest the assertion that religious belief has appeared to be in decline, most assuredly in Europe at least, over the last few centuries. That is why we called it The Age of Enlightenment, after all!

As for ‘materialism’, I’m not sure that Bolloré properly understands the term.  He says it is the idea that the physical world is all there is to reality. In actual fact, it maintains that all things, including mental states and consciousness, are results of material interactions. According to philosophical materialism, mind and consciousness are caused by physical processes, such as the neurochemistry of the human brain and nervous system, without which they cannot exist.

In other words, matter is the fundamental substance of nature. It holds that the so-called spiritual realm should be knowable and understandable if it exists. It does not preclude science eventually being able to understand it. Not so long ago, quantum physics was the stuff of supernatural fantasy and fiction. Bolloré has a twisted take on such scientific breakthroughs though, as we shall see shortly.

It is not entirely clear from the article (but maybe clearer in his book) just how science informs his worldview alongside his Catholicism, but it is likely be some type of monistic idealism; a philosophical system that emphasises the primacy of a single, unified reality, often identified as the Absolute or Nature, rather than a multitude of separate entities. It asserts that all existence is fundamentally mental or spiritual in nature. In other words, it usually asserts that consciousness is the fundamental substance of nature, with God being the supreme conscious entity that controls the universe.

I’ll allow you to evaluate this dichotomy, while reminding you of Occam’s Razor; a philosophical principle that suggests when faced with competing explanations for the same phenomenon, the simplest one—requiring the fewest assumptions—should be preferred.

But if this scepticism is common among my older generation, times are changing. As we come to the end of the first quarter of the 21st century, the tables are turning – with scientific discoveries making people question the very things they took for granted and thought rational. Perhaps surprisingly, Gen Z are leading the way, purporting that the belief in God’s existence might not be just a trend on the rise – it’s a rationally sound conviction, in line with their attitude towards science and religion.

I think we have established that Bolloré is mistaken in his assertion that scepticism is rife among Baby Boomers and the older generations. So, what about his perceptions of Gen Z? Gen Z covers people born from about 1995 to about 2010, i.e., currently about 15-30 years old. They are the generation considered the first to grow up with the internet and digital technology as a significant part of their daily lives. Contrary to Bolloré’s assertion, the census data above shows this generation to be amongst the most likely to have ‘no religion’. This is a bit simplistic though.  

Various studies, including from Humanists UK, reveal that Gen Z have distanced themselves from traditional religious affiliations, but that there is a growing interest in spirituality and the belief in some form of god. This apparent open-mindedness leads them to be open to a much wider range of ideas and influences than us Baby Boomers. This is, of course, not always a good thing as it makes them vulnerable to all manner of conspiracy theories and bad advice. This is why critical thinking skills need teaching from an early age and should be as central to the curriculum as the 3’R’s.

While the findings of Copernicus, Galileo, and Darwin created the impression that the workings of the universe could be explained without a creator God, the last century has seen what I call ‘The Great Reversal of Science’. With a number of break-through scientific discoveries – including thermodynamics, the theory of relativity, and quantum mechanics, plus the Big Bang and theories of expansion, heat death, and fine-tuning of the universe – the pendulum of science has swung back in the opposite direction.

Copernicus’s work that proposed the heliocentric model, placing the Sun at the centre of the universe rather than the Earth, was published shortly before his death in 1543, meaning he escaped retribution from the R.C. Church, but his great work ‘De Revolutionibus’ was placed on the Church’s ‘Index of Forbidden Books’.

Ninety years later, Galileo publicly advocated for the Copernican theory and this led to him being tried by the Roman Inquisition in 1633, and found “vehemently suspect of heresy”. Initially imprisoned, this was commuted to house arrest, under which he remained until his death in 1642.

As for Darwin, there has always been obvious resistance to evolutionary theory from Bible funda(mentalists) that take Bible accounts literally despite the glaringly obvious flaws. The Catholic Church has generally accepted the theory of evolution as a valid scientific explanation for the development of life and sees no intrinsic conflict between faith and science. In essence, God has always remained the fall-back position to explain what science cannot explain. Thus, we saw the emergence in the 19th century of the “God of the Gaps” concept. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_of_the_gaps  This is a theological concept that emerged in the 19th century and revolves around the idea that gaps in scientific understanding are regarded as indications of the existence of God. This perspective has its origins in the observation that some individuals, often with religious inclinations, point to areas where science falls short in explaining natural phenomena as opportunities to insert the presence of a divine creator.

Every big scientific breakthrough, some listed by Bolloré, does not see any sort of ‘reversal of science’, but simply a re-assertion that God is still a relevant and an available answer to questions still out of reach of science. The phrase “reversal of science” implies a misunderstanding of scientific progress, as scientific theories evolve based on evidence rather than simply reversing previous conclusions. A non sequitur occurs when a conclusion does not logically follow from the premises, which can happen if one assumes that scientific change is merely a reversal rather than a complex process of discovery, validation and re-evaluation.

More and more convincingly, and perhaps in spite of itself, science today is pointing to the fact that, to be explained, our universe needs a creator. In the words of Robert Wilson, Nobel Prize winner for the discovery of the echo of the Big Bang in 1978, and an agnostic: ‘If all this is true [the Big Bang theory] we cannot avoid the question of creation.’

Sure, science cannot avoid the question of what created the Big Bang, but there is an enormous leap from this to any sort of conclusion that there was a creator that in any way resembles most people’s idea of God.

Bolloré is being disingenuous to suggest that science is struggling for ideas about what came before the Big Bang. Some theories propose that the universe existed in a different state prior to the Big Bang, possibly involving a cold, dark universe or a phase of cosmic inflation that preceded the hot Big Bang event. This BBC Sky at Night Magazine article presents a few more ideas currently being explored.

But I struggle to find many reputable scientists that seriously propose a creator God as the explanation. Why is that? Science does not inherently reject the idea of a creator God; rather, it focuses on explaining the natural world through empirical evidence and does not address supernatural claims. ‘Supernatural’ simply means ‘I believe this despite the lack of any verifiable evidence’. If these phenomena exist, they are natural and should be able to be evidenced eventually. The work of microbes was deemed supernatural until we could see them. ‘Alternative medicine’ that works is simply medicine.

Many scientists and religious individuals find ways to reconcile their beliefs with scientific understanding, suggesting that science and faith can coexist. Science is simply a methodology to interrogate evidence and come to reliable conclusions. Faith is simply an attitude of mind towards things that cannot be evidenced (yet). They are clearly not mutually exclusive.

It is true that the existence of God cannot be proved incontrovertibly. While absolute proofs only exist in the theoretical domains of mathematics and logic, relative proofs are what we normally deal with, and what is generally considered ‘evidence’ in everyday life. If, like Richard Dawkins, we take a rational and scientific approach to the existence or non-existence of God, then we should only be persuaded by multiple, independent, and converging pieces of evidence.

Not much to argue with here other than some semantics. I would dispute that it is true that the existence of God cannot be proved incontrovertibly. Why can’t it? But it is true that there has been no verifiable evidence of God’s existence to date.

Yet again, Bolloré misappropriates words. What is considered ‘evidence’ in everyday life simply is not the same thing as what is regarded as valid evidence in scientific enquiry. In everyday life, and indeed even in courtrooms, casual and/or distant recollections, hearsay, gossip and circumstantial guesswork may all be deemed evidence. Most would agree that such things are weak evidence, but they are relied upon in the absence of better evidence, or the ability to understand better evidence, especially when there is a motive to come to a certain judgement.

There is, of course, such a thing as bad science too, undertaken without due attention to the scientific method, often with motives to manipulate findings. Good scientists will not jump to conclusions about multiple, independent and converging pieces of evidence. They will use this evidence to construct testable hypotheses and then seek to replicate and augment the evidence that supports the hypothesis with a high (but never absolute) degree of confidence. If God exists, then it is down to the proponents of the God hypothesis to produce the evidence. That evidence can then be interrogated and either corroborated or rejected accordingly. It is an impossible, illogical task for anyone to prove that something that doesn’t exist indeed doesn’t exist, as explained eloquently by Bertrand Russell with his Cosmic Teapot analogy.

Scientists across many fields of inquiry are now coming round to the idea that the thermal death of the universe and the Big Bang are strong evidence that our cosmos had an absolute beginning, while the fine-tuning of the universe and the transition from inert matter to life imply (separately) some more extraordinary fine tuning, showing the intervention of a creator external to our world.

Scientists across which fields of enquiry? Relevant fields of enquiry? ‘Fine tuning’ is the personification of physics processes that we are only just beginning to grapple with. None of this ‘shows’ the intervention of a creator at all. The key word that undermines this assertion is “imply”. Implications, at best, suggest things. They never “show’ anything conclusive.

With sets of converging evidence from different scientific disciplines – cosmology to physics, biology to chemistry – it is increasingly difficult for materialists to hold their position. Indeed, if they deny a creator, then they must accept and uphold that the universe had no beginning, that some of the greatest laws of physics (the principle of conservation of mass-energy, for example) have been violated, and that the laws of nature have no particular reason to favour the emergence of life.

“Converging evidence” of what exactly? Maybe I need to read the book to find out what this vague assertion is getting at. Upholding that the universe had no beginning is a possibility that has not been discounted. Anything infinite is difficult for ephemeral lifeforms (all life) to grasp I guess. And let us suppose for a moment that there was a creator God; does it necessarily still exist? Who or what created that God? What was it doing for the eternity before it came up with this universe? Why did it create a single species ‘in his likeness’ on one insignificant pale blue dot in the vastness of the cosmos? It raises way more questions than it answers, and I think Occam’s Razor should come into play again.

Weighing up the evidence on each side of the scale is a matter of intellectual rigour, and the question ‘Is there a creator God?’ is one we should all be asking ourselves, with serious implication for every one of us. What’s intriguing is that it’s actually the youth, who you’d think would be more preoccupied with more mundane and practical concerns, that are leading the way. Last August, a YouGov survey revealed that belief in God has doubled among young people (aged 18-24) in the last four years, with atheism falling in the same age group from 49 per cent in August 2021 to 32 per cent. Interpreting the data, Rev Marcus Walker, rector of St Bartholomew the Great in the City of London, mentioned that young people ‘seem really interested in the intellectual and spiritual side of religion’.

Seems a bit rich for Bolloré to invoke intellectual rigour, given what we have established so far! Weighing up the evidence available on the question ‘Is there a creator God?’, however, is not that challenging. It took a while to come, but there is the typical threat of judgement by a vindictive Catholic God in the words “with serious implication for every one of us” if we dare deny his existence (it’s always a ‘him’ in the Catholic imagination). A lack of evidence becomes a call to faith; a faith in that all-powerful, omnipotent, loving creator of all things bright and beautiful (as well as childhood cancer, humans imagining thousands of different deities, and Satan), who refuses to show himself but needs his ego massaging regularly lest he condemn us to everlasting hell.

I really can’t be bothered to interrogate his data in this paragraph, save to say I used the ONS Census data, a survey of the entire adult population of the UK. He uses a YouGov survey. These usually comprise a few thousand people that have signed up to do regular surveys emailed through to them regularly.

I’m not going to disagree with Rev Walker though. It is indeed my experience that many young people are interested in the intellectual and spiritual side of religion, as I am! It is fascinating stuff. But I hope he doesn’t think that this will translate into a reversal of the decline in Christianity in the UK.

Another report from the think tank Theos revealed that Gen Z have a more balanced perspective towards the relationship between science and religion. Over one in two young people think religion has a place in the modern world, and the majority (68 per cent) of Gen Z respondents believe that you could be religious and be a good scientist.

Hmm.. Theos! Founded in 2006 with the support of the then Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, and Archbishop of Westminster, Cormac Murphy-O’Connor, it is avowedly ecumenical but committed to traditional Christian creeds. It has strong associations with conservative Christian organisations and has been criticised for a lack of transparency in its funding. Wikipedia states that Theos is a project of, and core funded by, the British and Foreign Bible Society. This charity somehow funds translation, production and distribution of free bibles around the world, as part of the United Bible Societies network. The funding of all of this is very opaque!

And just for clarity (not offered by Bolloré), the report mentioned in this paragraph is not exactly ‘another report’, but a report on the findings of the YouGov survey mentioned in the previous paragraph, which was commissioned by none other than the British and Foreign Bible Society.

That about half of young people think religion has a place in the modern world is a classic example of question framing. You only have to watch the daily news, currently dominated by two Abrahamic religions (i.e., worshipping the same God) wanting to annihilate each other in Palestine to see that religion very much occupies a place in the world today. As in this example, it is not a pretty place much of the time. Had the question been framed as ‘should the major world religions of today have a place in the world of tomorrow?’ we might well have seen a very different response.

That 68% of Gen Z think you can be religious and a good scientist at the same time is disappointingly low if anything. I think we established earlier that these two intellectual positions are not mutually exclusive. We have all surely received great medical care from great medics that have migrated here from all corners of the world, with many patently adhering to many different creeds, superficially at least. I remember being under the orthopaedic care of Dr JPR Williams (iconic Wales rugby full-back of the 1970s) in Bridgend, and he always had a Bible handy. The only time I saw him use it though was when he used it to whack and disperse a ganglion on my ankle!

Far from painting a picture in which the number of people believing in God is dwindling (which has been the usual narrative in the last century), this research suggests we are at the dawn of a revolution – one in which belief in God is not simply supported by science, but embraced by younger generations, too.

Given what we know of Bolloré’s background and beliefs, I am led to believe that he is deluding himself into believing that young British people will flock back to the Catholic church. There has been evidence of higher attendances in Catholic Churches, with the increase being in young adults, but these have been primarily from east European migrant workers of strictly Catholic upbringings. It saw the rise of Polskie Sklepy (Polish shops) in every town too. They have largely disappeared quicker than they arrived thanks to Brexit. The claim that ‘belief in God is [now] supported by science’ is the sort of ridiculous claim we hear on a daily basis from President Trump. I’ll say no more than that.

In general, Gen Z seems to have positive and hopeful view of science’s impact on the world. According to recent figures, 49 per cent of Gen Z trust scientists and academics the most to lead global change, far ahead of politicians (8 per cent) and world leaders (6 per cent) (WaterAid, 2025). And yet, they are still spiritually curious: their trust in science doesn’t preclude them from wanting to explore spirituality and contemplating something bigger than our universe.

Hallelujah! Nothing contentious here (other than relying on data from WaterAid on such matters, not that I have anything against WaterAid). It appears that 0% thought religious leaders should lead global change. Strange that Bolloré failed to notice that.

Could they be the ones showing older generations a new way forward, one in which religion and science can coexist? And, more to the point, we now have the scientific evidence that would support a big shift in perspective. In the words of 91-year-old Carlo Rubbia, Professor of Physics at Harvard and Nobel laureate: ‘We come to God by the path of reason, others follow the irrational path.’

There is nothing new in religion and science coexisting. They have been doing it for centuries; most certainly throughout the entire lives of us Baby Boomers. The evidence that Gen Z is more curious about spirituality and matters currently beyond the scope of science is neither surprising (in this age of ready access to information) as Gen Z have the tools and the wherewithal to explore anything they are curious about in ways that were impossible to imagine (fanciful notions, erring towards being supernatural) when Bolloré and I were their age.

Thankfully, I can find no evidence that young people are flocking to the Roman Catholic Church that I left behind at 14 (after a couple of years of learning about science). I would concede that there is greater chance of such evidence being forthcoming than there is of verifiable evidence of a creator god.

As for Carlo Rubbia, he, like Michel-Yves Bolloré, is a lifelong Catholic; eleven years older than Bolloré. Culturally it would have been very difficult for Rubbia to not be a Catholic growing up in Italy, just as it was for my father growing up in Poland. I am therefore not at all surprised that this brilliant physicist still clings to his religion and cannot help falling for the ‘God of the Gaps’ fall-back. Indeed, this quote from him (in response to a magazine asking him “Do you believe in God?”) is nigh on identical to what I got from the physics teacher I interviewed recently:

The more you observe nature, the more you perceive that there is tremendous organization in all things. It is an intelligence so great that just by observing natural phenomena I come to the conclusion that a Creator exists.”

Sounds like a hunch from an observation to me. He has no better explanation. I find the title of his book intriguing: “The Temptation to Believe” (published by Rizzoli but appears to be out of print). He has patently succumbed to the temptation.

To return to my subtitle at the top of this piece, and my assertion that the claims that scientists are finding it harder to not believe in God are little more than right-wing conservative Christian propaganda, I think we can all see evidence for this in the way the media presents debates on issues such as climate change (there is no debate on it scientific circles), abortion and reproductive rights (morality derived from the Old Testament) and ‘traditional family values’ (that seem to embrace misogyny and homophobia). This is rife in the US, but present in the UK too.

The conservative right are not people whose morality I respect. They certainly do not get it from the Jesus dude in the Bible. For example, many of Jesus’s teachings resonate with socialism: in one story —told in three variants in three books of the Bible — a rich man asks Jesus what he needs to do to be perfect. Jesus says, ‘sell all your possessions and give the money to the poor’. We can imagine the reaction of people like Trump and Rubio, Boris Johnson and Gove and other economic elites (billionaires like Bolloré) to being confronted with a message like that!

When Donald Trump was campaigning for president, he claimed he loved the Bible but then was unable to elaborate when asked about his favourite verses. His supposed love for the Bible helped him fool the masses and get him elected. Similarly, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio garners support from conservative Christians by sending out periodic Bible tweets, very cutely selected.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi also regularly presents himself as a religious devotee, despite his clear economic conservatism and disdain for the poor. His image and messaging is way more prevalent all over India than any religious messaging. It was on every major throughfare and most public buildings I saw in India first hand.

Despite growing scientific evidence about consciousness and related spiritual concepts and the ongoing political relevance of religion, many intellectuals or people affiliated with progressive movements still shun concern with human spirituality. The irony of this dismissal is that it is a losing political strategy. It allows people like Trump and Modi to exploit human spirituality and manipulate people’s spiritual sensibility, gaining support from the very constituency they will inevitably go on to eviscerate. They use it to ‘persuade turkeys to vote for Xmas’, in other words.

I contest that it is not actually any harder for scientists to not believe in God, but I also contest that it is certainly getting harder for political progressives to ignore questions of human spirituality and the role that religion plays in people’s lives, for better or worse.

The erasing of our rights – how long before this blog gets erased, just like Banksy’s latest work?

The artwork below appeared on the wall of the Royal Courts of Justice after almost 900 demonstrators were arrested last Saturday (in similar fashion the 500 I reported on the week before). Banksy confirmed it was his handiwork on Instagram

Responding to Banksy’s work, a spokesperson for campaign group Defend Our Juries, which organised Saturday’s rally, said it “powerfully depicts the brutality unleashed by Yvette Cooper on protesters by proscribing Palestine Action”.

They said: “When the law is used as a tool to crush civil liberties, it does not extinguish dissent, it strengthens it.”

As Banksy’s artwork shows, the state can try to strip away our civil liberties, but we are too many in number and our resolve to stand against injustice cannot be beaten – our movement against the ban is unstoppable and growing every day.”

The artwork was scrubbed off within about 48 hours (see above), as it was inevitably going to be, being on a listed building, but the symbolism of its removal, on top of the symbolism of the artwork itself, strongly resonates with people, like myself, concerned about the attempts to quash and silence dissent in this country right now.

Starmer and his ‘starmtrooper’ cabinet colleagues have become prone to misusing legislation to impose an Orwellian agenda of silencing grassroots opinion. They cut their teeth first by thoroughly purging and/or silencing the left wing of his own party through suspension and expulsions on trumped up charges. The extent of this is that once lifelong Labour Party members are now seeking to rehome what were once that party’s core socialist values and defence of the working classes and disadvantaged in an altogether new party of the left (provisionally named ‘Your Party’). This leaves Starmer’s Labour Party with a moral vacuum at its centre which allows it to be complicit in the Zionist atrocities being committed in Gaza and beyond as it prostitutes itself to Zionist and related corporate interests.

Thus, it was able to distort its definition of terrorism to actively support the terrorist state of Israel but proscribe as terrorists UK citizens so appalled at the UK’s complicity in genocide that it dared to damaged RAF property and daub blood red paint on some war planes.

As I’ve reported before, this re-defining of ‘terrorism’ has been criticised and condemned by many, most notably by Volker Turk (UN’s high commissioner on human rights). I would like to believe that Yvette Cooper has subsequently been removed as Home Secretary for growing tired of defending this indefensible authoritarianism.

Volker Turk described the prosription as disturbing, disproportionate and unnecessary.

Starmer’s mob have created a whole raft of new opportunities to silence dissenting voices his Online Safety Act. Superficially, nobody can really argue with an objective of keeping children safe from exploitation and harm online. But is this the only objective of this legislation?

While some will argue that it is “making the internet safer”, it is also destroying hundreds, if not thousands of smaller online communities that simply cannot bear the cost of compliance. This includes registering a “senior person” with Ofcom who will be held accountable should Ofcom decide your site isn’t safe enough. It also means that moderation teams need to be fully staffed with quick response times if bad (loosely defined) content is found on the site. On top of that, sites need to take proactive measures to protect children. Failure to comply can lead to fines of millions of pounds.

Not surprisingly, many law-abiding forum hosts have simply shut down. This from LFGSS, a small one-person passion project for bikers in London:

“We’re done… we fall firmly into scope, and I have no way to dodge it. The act is too broad, and it doesn’t matter that there’s never been an instance of any of the proclaimed things that this act protects adults, children and vulnerable people from… the very broad language and the fact that I’m based in the UK means we’re covered.

The act simply does not care that this site and platform is run by an individual, and that I do so philanthropically without any profit motive (typically losing money), nor that the site exists to reduce social loneliness, reduce suicide rates, help build meaningful communities that enrich life.

The act only cares that is it “linked to the UK” (by me being involved as a UK native and resident, by you being a UK based user), and that users can talk to other users… that’s it, that’s the scope.

I can’t afford what is likely tens of thousands to go through all the legal hoops here over a prolonged period of time, the site itself barely gets a few hundred in donations each month and costs a little more to run… this is not a venture that can afford compliance costs… and if we did, what remains is a disproportionately high personal liability for me, and one that could easily be weaponised by disgruntled people who are banned for their egregious behaviour (in the years running fora I’ve been signed up to porn sites, stalked IRL and online, subject to death threats, had fake copyright takedown notices, an attempt to delete the domain name with ICANN… all from those whom I’ve moderated to protect community members)… I do not see an alternative to shuttering it.”

Of course, the big players can carry these costs and will benefit from losing the competition with myriads of small platforms. And the truly nasty, exploitative operators will either ignore the law or find loopholes. It’s naïve in the extreme to think compulsive, sick abusers will pack it in simply because one channel of operation has become trickier.

… such as anything endorsing Palestine Action

But look how easy it is now for government to closedown dissenting voices. Are we safer or in more danger now that vandals can be convicted as terrorists? Is the internet really safer now that any small community can be closed down as a potential refuge for abusers?

Demonstrations against genocide and ethnic cleansing in Gaza overshadowed by Orwellian oppression by a Labour government, witnessed with my own eyes and ears.

I’ve attended a few of the nigh-on-thirty National Marches for Palestine in London and many others in Cardiff. This is the first that has had me welling up in tears.

The first pro-Palestine demo I attended in London, maybe 10 years ago, had somewhere between 20 and 30 thousand marching. The monthly marches over the last 18 months or so have had between 80 and 200 thousand on them. With the news this week that Netanyahu is about to embark on the last phase of  his project to ethnic cleanse the Gaza strip, there was the anticipation that there may be well over 200,000 there today from all over the country.

The whole atmosphere was a bit more intense, it seemed to me, as we slowly made our way from Russell Square to Downing Street, via my old stomping ground of Aldwych and the Strand

I suspect I was not alone on reflecting on the mounting horrors being committed in Gaza, with our government’s ongoing complicity, but also that today also marked the 80th anniversary of the bombing of Nagasaki, three days after the bombing of Hiroshima. These war crimes killed 120,000 people instantly and hundreds of thousands more slowly and excruciatingly due to the aftereffects; more than everyone of us on the streets of London today. We didn’t get to see people dying excruciating deaths on our screens in 1945; most didn’t own any screens back then (there were less than 10,000 televisions in the UK in 1945). Now we get to watch genocide, including the starvation of children, in real time on all our many screens.

Hiroshima or Gaza?

The other undercurrent today was that this was the first time many of us had been on such a demo since the proscription of Palestine Action. Most of those attending would be supporters, in principle at least, of Palestine Action’s cause, but all now were wary of falling foul of interpretations of this and facing the prospect, and consequences, of being arrested, labelled a terrorist sympathiser and facing a potential 14-year term of imprisonment. Add all this together and is it any wonder that the mood was even more sombre than usual.

My sign in Russell Square.

Because of concerns about conflating the issues of the Gaza genocide and the UK civil rights oppression, support for Palestine Action was organised in a totally different way, such that those that didn’t want to get caught up with opposing the proscription were in no danger on the main march. Indeed, the policing of this march was very low key and discreet. This was in sharp contrast to the Palestine Action support protest.

While the National March saw perhaps 200,000+ people congregate in Russell Square to commence the March at exactly 1pm, two miles away in Parliament Square 500 briefed and prepared volunteers awaited Big Ben to chime 1pm, sat down on the grass, and unrolled their own hand-written A2 posters, all saying exactly the same thing:

I OPPOSE GENOCIDE, I SUPPORT PALESTINE ACTION

I got to Parliament Square about 2.30pm by which time those sitting in the square and a whole lot more people, including a lot of journalists and camera operators, were effectively kettled by a ring of around 200 police officers. I asked if I could join my friends inside the cordon and was told in no uncertain terms “No”. When asked why not, all I got from the Met officers was that “A section 13 of the Public Order Act is in place.” When I asked what that was the Met officers refused to say and just said “Look it up”.

I wandered around the cordon until I stumbled across a whole section, in front of the Nelson Mandela and Mahatma Gandhi statues, ironically enough, that consisted of officers from Wales! They were very conspicuous due to the HEDDLU labels, but also much chattier (would you believe that!). Chatting to a few of them, I clarified that my placard would likely not get me arrested today as it is ambiguous enough as to whether I was expressing support for Palestine Action, and they had plenty of unambiguous ones to sort out first. I asked her if I verbally removed the ambiguity and told her I supported Palestine Action, would she arrest me. She said that that still would not be a priority today. Oh well, I tried!

Many of you reading this will know how embarrassed I have become over the years at never having been arrested on a demo. Despite the impression I may have given above, I had already determined that I didn’t really want to be arrested today. I had had a long chat with a couple of the legal observers that are present at all such demos about the changing climate around the criminalisation of protest in the UK, specifically the Palestine Action situation.

The implications of being arrested and either accepting a caution or being prosecuted and found guilty of supporting a proscribed organisation can be dire. It was not anticipated that mere supporters, as opposed to members and/or participating activists, were likely to be jailed, but even a mere caution stays on your record for 10 years and could have serious career and other ramifications for many, and also incur travel bans to many countries. I have no career worries anymore, but I do still have plenty of travel plans!!

The legal advice around being arrested has been the same for years. Below is an up-to-date copy of the cards the legal observers hand out on demos. The only thing that has changed is the phone numbers and email addresses, so if, like me, you have been carrying one of these in your wallet/purse for years, you might want to check you have the current contact details.

I’m sure all of those arrested in Parliament Square today will have had them. Because of the consequences outlined above, the 500 volunteers will have all known the possible consequences and how to handle the near-inevitable arrest. Perhaps because of this, the demographics of these 500 people are a bit different to most people I have seen arrested at demos over the years.

As of 10:00pm this evening, 474 people had been arrested in Parliament Square, according to the BBC. That number had been 365 at about 8:00pm. I witnessed about 30 arrests myself, between 2:00pm and 4:00pm.

The first person I saw being arrested (above) was this smartly dressed gentleman. I was told that he was a solicitor. Apparently, one of the first arrested, before I got there, had been an elderly gentleman in a wheelchair. I was a bit sceptical of this story initially, but then witnessed many elderly people, especially women in (I’m guessing) their 80s being bundled off into police vans. There were university lecturers, vicars, self-employed professionals like dentists and accountants, many retired people from all walks of life and a smattering of smart, articulate young people all prepared to stand up (or be dragged away) and be counted.

89 years old.

It was this spectacle that I was surprised to find had tears rolling down my cheek at one point. These people were guilty of no more than supporting efforts to end a genocide that is occurring before our eyes. They were being labelled as supporters of terrorism by a government arming the genocidal regime and effectively condoning (through Palestine Inaction) the ethnic cleansing and bulldozing of Gaza to enable its annexation and redevelopment as luxury seafront real estate for wealthy Israelis and American tourists. Trump can’t wait to get involved!

WTF has the UK become?

After so many years of Tory incompetence and corruption, we now have an even more disgusting Labour government continuing with austerity for the poorest while Starmer’s net worth of well over £10m rapidly starts chasing after Tony Blairs obscene £50m+ and the guy knighted for service as a human rights lawyer tuns into an Orwellian “Big Brother” proscribing direct action way less damaging than that he worked hard and successfully to get cleared in courts of law little more than 20 years ago. Nauseating!

Starmer and Cooper may yet be forced to rescind the proscription of Palestine Action, despite Cooper doubling down on it today. On 30 July, a High Court judge ruled that Palestine Action can bring a legal challenge against the UK government over its designation as a terrorist organisation. This followed a hugely damning statement from Volker Türk, High Commissioner for Human Rights at the United Nations that says:

“UK domestic counter-terrorism legislation now defines terrorist acts broadly to include ‘serious damage to property’. But, according to international standards, terrorist acts should be confined to criminal acts intended to cause death or serious injury or to the taking of hostages, for purpose of intimidating a population or to compel a government to take a certain action or not. It misuses the gravity and impact of terrorism to expand it beyond those clear boundaries, to encompass further conduct that is already criminal under the law.”

This Labour Government is not just nauseating, but it almost as embarrassing as the Johnson government.

Just to lighten the mood a tad, let me share two true stories from today of arrests that made me chuckle. These were not in Westminster Square but on the National March. These were people whose placards were deemed less ambiguous than mine in their support for Palestine Action. Both were dismissed when taken for processing with the arresting officers rebuked for their illiteracy, I warrant. The first went something like this:

That’s one officer now aware of the importance of commas!

The second one I heard about and struggled to believe, but then I bumped into the guy and took his picture! Hopefully you’ll spot the issue quicker than the arresting officer!

But my final memories of the day occurred on my journey back home, and again had me welling up.

The first occurred on the tube from Westminster to Paddington. I was sat opposite a lady wearing a hijab and she read my sign and I saw a tear roll down her face. She stood up to get off at the next stop and leaned forward towards me and simply said “Thank you, thank you”.

The second occurred on the train out of Paddington, less than an hour later. There was a lady about my age, travelling alone, sat across the aisle from me but facing me. This was the conversation, initiated by the lady, with an east European accent:

         “Excuse me, can I ask you something?”

         “Sure.”

         “Do you hate the Jews for what they are doing in Gaza?”

         “No, not at all! What is happening in Gaza is not the doing of the Jewish people, but of a genocidal rogue state.”

         “Thank you. I agree with you.”

We said no more, and she got off at Reading.

What a day.

PS. A guardian article, a week later, about some of the older generation who were arrested:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/aug/16/im-proud-to-have-made-this-stand-over-60s-arrested-at-palestine-action-ban-protest-explain-their-decision