This was great news on so many levels. First and foremost, with most polls I saw having Deform UK slightly ahead, there is the huge relief in seeing them comfortably pushed back into second place in the end.

The poll also supports the growing evidence that the Conservative Party is a ‘dead man walking’; well, just about staggering. As far as Wales is concerned, it may finally collapse into its final resting place in next year’s Senedd elections. Fingers crossed!

Leanne Wood established Plaid Cymru as a left of centre eco-socialist leaning party, but one that still harboured some right-wing nationalists. It has taken a long time for it to gain credibility as a genuine, trustworthy, left of centre party. When Leanne stepped away it lost momentum for a while. But now, as Welsh Labour’s treachery and role in undermining the Corbyn project, that had the overwhelming support of socialists across Wales, and their consequent support for the disgusting knight of the realm, Starmer, who actively purged true socialists from the Labour Party, it is now clear that the Welsh public have had enough.

And Labour look destined to receive a mighty, long-overdue comeuppance next year too. This is a hugely emblematic result that signifies, I believe, that the people of Wales now have the courage to re-assert themselves as pioneers of progressive change. Remember that the Chartist movement took root in South Wales; that the Merthyr Rising was a key staging post in the establishment of Trade Unions; and, that the NHS was born in Wales. This is why the Labour Party was for such a long time the party of Wales. And it is why ever since Welshman Neil Kinnock scrapped Clause 4 and laid the groundwork for the shift right that became entrenched by Blair (and now re-inforced by Blair v.2.0 Starmer) it has slowly drifted away from serving the interests of the Welsh people.

Thus, this by-election was always a two horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. The full Senedd elections next year look set to be the same, although Labour will not go down without a fight, and that may well let Reform UK in, in quite a few places at least.

Reform UK are a problem that is not going away any time soon. They are riding the wave of right-wing populism that has swept vast parts of the globe by offering the tried and tested formula of simplistic scape-goating of vulnerable minorities allied with MAGA (Make Anywhere Great Again) mentalities of bringing back the ‘good old days’, without pointing out just who benefitted most in those ‘good old days’ before free health care for all, before ‘women’s liberation’, before strong trade unions, before environmental protection measures.

The turn out in this by-election was encouraging, although scraping 50% is hardly impressive. But is double that of many by-elections. And it brought out enough thinking people to repel Reform. Farage said that they had a target of getting 12,000 votes, believing that would be enough to win. They did indeed get 12,000 votes but the higher than anticipated turnout saw PC surge from a projected 11,000 votes to a resounding 16,000 votes in the end. Fear of the prospect of Reform winning would seem the likely prompt that 5,000 people needed.

Seeing some to the BBC interviews with Caerphilly residents today (the day after the election) who didn’t vote offers a bit more cause for optimism. All the ones I saw were pleased that Reform didn’t win. One was a guy his 60s who had always voted Labour, had given up on them, but couldn’t bring himself to vote for anybody else. Another was a 16 year old school lad who said he didn’t feel able to vote because he didn’t know enough. He said most of his mates were the same, and that he felt the voting age should still be 18, but did also say that those he knew that had voted had voted for Plaid Cymru. This anecdotal evidence suggests to me that PC do have scope to focus on these key demographics to generate more support next year. I hope they are taking note.

Finally, let me say how pleased I was for Lindsay Whittle, the winning candidate. The 72-year-old candidate, has been involved in electoral politics in Caerphilly for decades. He has stood in council elections 18 times, for Westminster 10 times, and for every Senedd election in the last 26 years. He previously sat as a regional MS from 2011 to 2016. He may not exactly be the future of Welsh politics, but he is living proof that commitment and dedication can pay off. I am sure that Caerphilly have themselves a wonderful advocate for the town who will repay their faith in him.